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Did US consumers 'save for a rainy day' before the Great Recession?

Anundsen, André Kallåk; Nymoen, Ragnar - 2015

The 'saving for a rainy day' hypothesis implies that households' saving decisions reflect that they can (rationally) predict future income declines. The empirical relevance of this hypothesis plays a key role in discussions of fiscal policy multipliers and it holds under the null that the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010518800

Booms, recessions and financial turmoil : a fresh look at investment decisions under cyclical uncertainty

Chen, Yu-Fu; Funke, Michael - 2009

The paper studies the interaction between cyclical uncertainty and investment in a stochastic real option framework … of the link between cyclical uncertainty and investment is quantified using simulations of the model. The chief … shows that macroeconomic risk acts as an important deterrent to investments. -- business cycles ; real options ; investment …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003872827

Econometric methods for causal evaluation of education policies and practices : a non-technical guide

Schlotter, Martin; Schwerdt, Guido; Woessmann, Ludger - 2009

Education policy-makers and practitioners want to know which policies and practices can best achieve their goals. But research that can inform evidence-based policy often requires complex methods to distinguish causation from accidental association. Avoiding econometric jargon and technical...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003922964

Conditional gender peer effects?

Iversen, Jon Marius Vaag; Bonesrønning, Hans - 2014

While the current empirical literature on peer group effects in schools highlights that credible causal peer effects cannot be estimated unless parental sorting is taken into account, the present paper highlights that causal peer effects might be conditional on the learning environment in which...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010229881

Revisiting the great ratios hypothesis

Chudik, Alexander; Pesaran, M. Hashem; Smith, Ron - 2022

The idea that certain economic variables are roughly constant in the long-run is an old one. Kaldor described them as stylized facts, whereas Klein and Kosobud labelled them great ratios. While such ratios are widely adopted in theoretical models in economics as conditions for balanced growth,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013041372

Modelling volatility of cryptocurrencies using Markov-switching GARCH models

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Zekokh, Timur - 2018

This paper aims to select the best model or set of models for modelling volatility of the four most popular cryptocurrencies, i.e. Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple and Litecoin. More than 1,000 GARCH models are fitted to the log returns of the exchange rates of each of these cryptocurrencies to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011882344

Markov-switching and the Ifo business climate : the Ifo business cycle traffic lights

Abberger, Klaus; Nierhaus, Wolfgang - 2010

Business cycle indicators are used to assess the economic situation of countries or regions. They are closely watched by the public, but are not easy to interpret. Does a current movement of the indicator signal a turning point or not? With the help of Markov Switching Models movements of...