In this paper, we disentangle tax revenue forecast errors into influences stemming from wrong macroeconomic assumptions … the forecast errors of the energy tax and the sales taxes. For the overall tax sum, more than two-third of the error can … can reduce tax revenue forecast errors. …

forecast errors are small in most countries, the precision of the forecasts measured by the standard deviation of the forecast … lower standard deviation of the forecast error. -- revenue forecasting ; international comparison ; OECD countries … ; forecast error …

We forecast New York state tax revenues with a mixed-frequency model using a number of machine learning techniques. We …

the no-change forecast. Our key finding is that substantial reductions in the mean-squared prediction error (MSPE) of … greater reductions in MSPEs are possible by constructing a pooled forecast that assigns equal weight to five of the most …

We have argued that from the standpoint of a policy maker, the uncertainty of using the average forecast is not the … that the uncertainty of the average forecast can be expressed as the disagreement among the forecasters plus the volatility … the conceptually correct benchmark forecast uncertainty. …