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Baumeister and Hamilton (2019a) assert that every critique of their work on oil markets by Kilian and Zhou (2019a) is without merit. In addition, they make the case that key aspects of the economic and econometric analysis in the widely used oil market model of Kilian and Murphy (2014) and its...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012119530
This paper examines the advantages and drawbacks of alternative methods of estimating oil supply and oil demand elasticities and of incorporating this information into structural VAR models. I not only summarize the state of the literature, but also draw attention to a number of econometric...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012288032
the world. We also find that the Iranian economy adjusts quite quickly to the shocks in foreign output and oil exports …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003897747
This work shows the asymmetric effect of the reduction in transportation costs across different sectors in the process of the Great Divergence. Specifically, the analysis indicates that reductions in transportation costs of industrial goods enhance convergence of the growth rates of trading...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010347039
Motivated by the European Union's debate on sanctioning crude oil imports from Russia, we estimate the elasticity of substitution between different crude oil types. Using European data on country-level crude oil imports by field of origin, we argue that crude oil is not a homogenous good and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014364721
demand and supply shocks. The results show that higher macroeconomic uncertainty, as measured by higher world industrial …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009621702
Using recent advances in panel data estimation techniques, we find that an appreciation of the US dollar exchange rate leads to a significant decline in oil demand for a sample of 65 oil-importing countries. The estimated effect turns out to be much larger than the impact of a shift in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009707558
usefulness for forecasting real oil prices and global petroleum consumption. We find that world industrial production is one of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012213172
Using time-varying BVARs, we find that oil price increases caused by oil supply shocks did not affect food commodity prices before the start of the millennium, but had positive spillover effects in more recent periods. Likewise, shortfalls in global food commodity supply - resulting from bad...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012064355
This paper explores a range of different forecast methods for Brent oil prices and analyses their performance relative to oil futures and the random walk over the period 1995Q1 - 2015Q2, including periods of stable, upwardly trending and rapidly dropping oil prices. None of the individual...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011573261