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Leveraged bubbles
Jordà, Òscar; Schularick, Moritz; Taylor, Alan M. - 2015
others blow over. We demonstrate that what makes some bubbles more dangerous than others is credit. When fueled by credit … slower recoveries. Credit-financed housing price bubbles have emerged as a particularly dangerous phenomenon. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011309562
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Consumption risk sharing over the business cycle : the role of small firms' access to credit markets
Hoffmann, Mathias; Stewen, Iryna - 2009
firms' access to credit markets plays an important role in explaining this stylized fact: business cycle fluctuations in … addition, better access of small firms to credit markets in the wake of state-level banking deregulation during the 1980s seems … better access to credit markets may have made it easier for the owners of small firms to smooth income in the face of adverse …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003807913
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Private debt overhang and the government spending multiplier : evidence for the United States
Bernardini, Marco; Peersman, Gert - 2015
Using state-dependent local projection methods and historical U.S. data, we find that government spending multipliers are considerably larger in periods of private debt overhang. In particular, we find significant crowding-out of personal consumption and investment in low-debt states, resulting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010498604
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Liquidity traps and large-scale financial crises
Caggiano, Giovanni; Castelnuovo, Efrem; Damette, Olivier; … - 2018
This paper estimates a nonlinear Threshold-VAR to investigate if a Keynesian liquidity trap due to a speculative motive was in place in the U.S. Great Depression and the recent Great Recession. We find clear evidence in favor of a breakdown of the liquidity effect after an unexpected increase in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011863616
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Contagion of fear
Mitchener, Kris; Richardson, Gary - 2020
The Great Depression is infamous for banking panics, which were a symptomatic of a phenomenon that scholars have labeled a contagion of fear. Using geocoded, microdata on bank distress, we develop metrics that illuminate the incidence of these events and how banks that remained in operation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012194368
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On the cyclicity of regional house prices : new evidence for US metropolitan statistical areas
Flor, Michael A.; Klarl, Torben - 2015
This paper is mainly concerned with the analysis of regional house price cycles. Based on a newly available data set consisting of the 40 largest U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs), we introduce a wavelet transform based metric to study the housing cycle synchronization across MSAs. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011306112
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Going to extremes : politics after financial crisis, 1870 - 2014
Funke, Manuel; Schularick, Moritz; Trebesch, Christoph - 2015
Partisan conflict and policy uncertainty are frequently invoked as factors contributing to slow post-crisis recoveries. Recent events in Europe provide ample evidence that the political aftershocks of financial crises can be severe. In this paper we study the political fall-out from systemic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011349087
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Uncertainty shocks and financial crisis indicators
Hristov, Nikolay; Roth, Markus - 2019
The current paper broadens the understanding of the role played by uncertainty in the context of macroeconomic fluctuations. It focuses on the implications of uncertainty shocks for indicators that tend to precede financial crises. In an empirical analysis we show for a set of four euro area...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012103607
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Business cycle effects of credit and technology shocks in a DSGE model with firm defaults
Pesaran, M. Hashem; Xu, TengTeng - 2011
This paper proposes a theoretical framework to analyze the impacts of credit and technology shocks on business cycle … financial institutions in the transmission of credit and technology shocks to the real economy. A positive credit shock, defined … between loan and deposit rates. The effects of the credit shock tend to be highly persistent even without price rigidities and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009312180
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The nature of financial and real business cycles : the great moderation and banking sector pro-cyclicality
Égert, Balázs; Sutherland, Douglas - 2012
This paper takes a fresh look at the nature of financial and real business cycles in OECD countries using annual data series and shorter quarterly and monthly economic indicators. It first analyses the main characteristics of the cycle, including the length, amplitude, asymmetry and changes of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009540104