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Does economic policy uncertainty encourage gambling? : evidence from the Chinese welfare lottery market
Xu, Can; Steiner, Andreas; Haan, Jakob de - 2023
This paper investigates the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on gambling activity in China. Based on a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013503360
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Biased forecasts and voting : the Brexit referendum case
Bizzotto, Jacopo; Cipullo, Davide; Reslow, André - 2024 - This version: July 1, 2024
forecaster is more likely to bias the forecast associated with the policy that is (i) less likely to be selected in the … referendum and (ii) associated with greater macroeconomic uncertainty. Second, as the influence of the forecast on the voter …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014583811
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Selective attention in exchange rate forecasting
Kapounek, Svatopluk; Kučerová, Zuzana; Kočenda, Evžen - 2021
We analyze the exchange rate forecasting performance under the assumption of selective attention. Although currency markets react to a variety of different information, we hypothesize that market participants process only a limited amount of information. Our analysis includes more than 100,000...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012433963
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Exchange rate forecasters' performance : evidence of skill?
McDonald, Ronald H.; Menkhoff, Lukas; Rebitzky, Rafael R. - 2009
This paper sheds new light on a long-standing puzzle in the international finance literature, namely, that exchange rate expectations appear inaccurate and even irrational. We find for a comprehensive dataset that individual forecasters' performance is skill-based. 'Superior' forecasters show...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003832110
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Seven pitfalls of technical analysis
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Plastun, Alex - 2023
This paper examines the main drawbacks of technical analysis. Although this is widely used by practitioners, from an academic perspective it can only be seen as a form of "voodoo finance". In particular, it runs into the following pitfalls: Subjectivity; Doubtful assumptions; Unjustified...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013489574
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Adaptation, anticipation-bias and optimal income taxation
Aronsson, Thomas; Schöb, Ronnie - 2012
lives for three periods. Our results show how a paternalistic government may correct for the effects of anticipation-bias … ; adaptation ; habit-formation ; anticipation-bias ; paternalism …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009570029
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Hindsight bias and trust in government : evidence from the United States
Herz, Holger; Kistler, Deborah; Zehnder, Christian; … - 2022
We empirically assess whether hindsight bias has consequences on how citizens evaluate their political actors. Using an …. Exogenous variation in the extent of hindsight bias, induced through random assignment to survey structures, allows us to show … that hindsight bias causally reduces trust in government. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013205089
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The demand for news : accuracy concerns versus belief confirmation motives
Chopra, Felix; Haaland, Inga; Roth, Christopher - 2022 - This version: June 2022
only reduce their demand for biased news if the bias is inconsistent with their own political beliefs, suggesting a trade …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013173771
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Valuing the time of the self-employed
Agness, Daniel; Baseler, Travis; Chassang, Sylvain; … - 2022
and self-serving bias. As a result, neither market wages nor standard valuation techniques (such as the Becker …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012815796
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Do people demand fact-checked news? : evidence from U.S. democrats
Anand Chopra, Felix; Haaland, Ingar; Roth, Christopher - 2021
In a large-scale online experiment with U.S. Democrats, we examine how the demand for a newsletter about an economic relief plan changes when the newsletter content is fact-checked. We first document an overall muted demand for fact-checking when the newsletter features stories from an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012668494