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Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Plastun, Alex - 2023

This paper examines the main drawbacks of technical analysis. Although this is widely used by practitioners, from an academic perspective it can only be seen as a form of "voodoo finance". In particular, it runs into the following pitfalls: Subjectivity; Doubtful assumptions; Unjustified...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013489574

A theory of tax avoidance : managerial incentives for tax planning in a multi-task principal-agent model

Ewert, Ralf; Niemann, Rainer - 2014

We derive determinants of tax avoidance by means of a multi-task principal-agent model. We extend prevailing models by integrating both corporate and individual income taxation as well as by including tax planning effort in the agent’s action portfolio. Our model shows novel and apparently...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010367166

Exchange rate forecasters' performance : evidence of skill?

McDonald, Ronald H.; Menkhoff, Lukas; Rebitzky, Rafael R. - 2009

This paper sheds new light on a long-standing puzzle in the international finance literature, namely, that exchange rate expectations appear inaccurate and even irrational. We find for a comprehensive dataset that individual forecasters' performance is skill-based. 'Superior' forecasters show...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003832110

Taxes and financial reporting : evidence from discretionary investment write-offs in Italy

Arachi, Giampaolo; Bucci, Valeria - 2010

This paper provides further empirical evidence on the relationship between taxes and financial reporting by focusing on accounting decisions to write-offs equity investments. The analysis is based on panel data for Italian companies. In the period 1998-2006 the Italian corporate income tax has...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008749010

Should contact bans be lifted in Germany? : a quantitative prediction of Its effects

Donsimoni, Jean Roch; Glawion, René; Plachter, Bodo; … - 2020

Many countries consider the lifting of restrictions of social contacts (RSC). We quantify the effects of RSC for Germany. We initially employ a purely statistical approach to predicting prevalence of COVID19 if RSC were upheld after April 20. We employ these findings and feed them into our...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012206629

Forecasting random walks under drift instability

Pesaran, M. Hashem (contributor); Pick, Andreas (contributor) - 2008

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003711763

Inside the crystal ball : new approaches to predicting the gasoline price at the pump

Baumeister, Christiane; Kilian, Lutz; Lee, Thomas - 2016

the no-change forecast. Our key finding is that substantial reductions in the mean-squared prediction error (MSPE) of … greater reductions in MSPEs are possible by constructing a pooled forecast that assigns equal weight to five of the most …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011429580

Measuring uncertainty of a combined forecast and some tests for forecaster heterogeneity

Lahiri, Kajal; Peng, Huaming; Sheng, Xuguang - 2015

We have argued that from the standpoint of a policy maker, the uncertainty of using the average forecast is not the … that the uncertainty of the average forecast can be expressed as the disagreement among the forecasters plus the volatility … the conceptually correct benchmark forecast uncertainty. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011305389

Tariffs, trade and productivity : a quantitative evaluation of heterogeneous firm models

Breinlich, Holger; Cuñat, Alejandro - 2013

We examine the quantitative predictions of heterogeneous firm models à la Melitz (2003) in the context of the Canada - US Free Trade Agreement (CUSFTA) of 1989. We compute predicted increases in trade flows and measured productivity across a range of standard models and compare them to the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009773860

The predictive power of political pundits : prescient or pitiful?

Metaxas, Phillip; Leigh, Andrew - 2013

Although Australian political pundits frequently make predictions about the future, little systematic evidence exists on the accuracy of these predictions. To assess the predictive power of experts, we survey the transcripts of two well-known political programs - Insiders and Meet the Press -...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009748356

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