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Using a long-panel dataset of Japanese firms that contains firm-level sales forecasts, we provide evidence on firm-level uncertainty and imperfect information over their life cycle. We find that firms make non-negligible and positively correlated forecast errors. However, they make more precise...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012258487
We study business uncertainty in high- versus low-volatility environments by surveying over 31,000 managers across 41 countries. We elicit subjective probability distributions for future own-firm sales and measure firm-level uncertainty with their mean absolute deviations. Analogously, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015071152
We analyse the extent to which firm-level uncertainty is affected by aggregate uncertainty. Firm-level uncertainty is constructed from a large and monthly panel dataset of manufacturing firms. We find that aggregate uncertainty has a positive and robust impact on firm-level uncertainty. This...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012486379
shows that macroeconomic risk acts as an important deterrent to investments. -- business cycles ; real options ; investment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003872827
typically shares in the latter gains via the collection of tax revenues. Hence to the extent the risk discount rate should … reflect the co-variability between the return from public investment and that of the market, we are led to measuring the risk …, 1950-2000, and show that the social risk premium is relatively small vis-à-vis the market. Consequently, the use of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011514079
-form expressions of welfare loss from shocks and epistemological uncertainty identify the interaction of (intertemporal) risk attitude …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011305430
Recent theoretical work in the economics of climate change has suggested that climate policy is highly sensitive to "fat-tailed" risks of catastrophic outcomes (Weitzman, 2009b). Such risks are suggested to be an inevitable consequence of scientific uncertainty about the effects of increased...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010199723
regularities by developing a new firmbased trade model wherein managers are risk averse. Higher volatility induces the reallocation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011547934
degree of pessimism of the representative agent is the mean of the individual ones weighted by their index of absolute risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011507677
Consider legal uncertainty as uncertainty about the legality of a specific action. In particular, suppose that the threshold of legality is uncertain. I show that this legal uncertainty raises welfare. Legal uncertainty changes deterrence in opposite directions. The probability of conviction...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011557794