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Understanding firms' inflation expectations using the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey
Richards, Simon; Verstraete, Matthieu - 2016
Inflation expectations are a key determinant of actual and future inflation and thus matter for the conduct of monetary policy. We study how firms form their inflation expectations using quarterly firm-level data from the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey, spanning the 2001 to 2015...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011540769
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Breaking monetary policy news : the role of mass media coverage of ECB announcements for public inflation expectations
Hirsch, Patrick; Feld, Lars P.; Köhler, Ekkehard A. - 2023
Using the variation in national television news of four major member states in the Eurozone, we find causal effects of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013550202
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Central bank policies and financial markets : lessons from the Euro crisis
Mody, Ashoka; Nedeljkovic, Milan - 2018 - This version: November 20, 2018
The European Central Bank (ECB) took many measures to combat the eurozone's rolling financial crisis. For providing … desperately scarce dollars to eurozone banks, the ECB relied on the U.S. Federal Reserve. Using a novel econometric framework, we … October 2009 and September 2012, the most intense phase of the eurozone crisis. Dollar liquidity clearly reduced stress in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011942687
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"Whatever It Takes!" : how tonality of TV-news affected government bond yield spreads during the European debt crisis
Hirsch, Patrick; Feld, Lars P.; Köhler, Ekkehard A.; … - 2024
to identify over 25,000 news on the Eurozone and country-specific economic topics. Our findings emphasize the relevance …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014486807
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A new two-pillar strategy for the ECB
De Grauwe, Paul; Gros, Daniel - 2009
The ECB has been arguing in the past that since there is no trade-off between price stability and financial stability, the pursuit of price stability is the best a central bank can do to also maintain financial stability. We argue that there is a potential trade-off between price stability and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003888991
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Is the anchoring of consumers' inflation expectations shaped by inflation experience?
Dräger, Lena; Lamla, Michael - 2018
In this paper, we explore the degree of anchoring of consumers' individual long-run inflation expectations utilizing the University of Michigan Survey of Consumer's rotating panel micro-structure. Our results indicate that long-run inflation expectations became more anchored over the last...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011846446
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The hidden heterogeneity of inflation and interest rate expectations : the role of preferences
Dräger, Lena; Lamla, Michael; Pfajfar, Damjan - 2022
Using a new consumer survey dataset, we show that macroeconomic preferences affect expectations and economic decisions through different channels. While household expectations are on average inversely related to preferences, households with the same inflation or interest rate expectations can...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013166152
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How to limit the spillover from an inflation surge to inflation expectations?
Dräger, Lena; Lamla, Michael; Pfajfar, Damjan - 2023
We study the effects of forward-looking communication in an environment of rising inflation rates on German consumers' inflation expectations using a randomized control trial. We show that information about rising inflation increases short- and long-term inflation expectations. This initial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014247283
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Mixing QE and interest rate policies at the effective lower bound : micro evidence from the euro area
Bittner, Christian; Rodnyansky, Alexander; Saidi, Farzad; … - 2021 - First version: June 15, 2021, this version: October 12, 2021
In the presence of negative monetary-policy rates and a zero lower bound on deposit rates, banks that are more exposed to central banks' asset-purchase programs reduce their lending to the real economy by more than their counterparts. When banks face a lower bound on customer deposit rates, an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012649768
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Forecasting inflation with a zero lower bound or negative interest rates : evidence from point and density forecasts
Anderl, Christina; Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2022
This paper investigates the predictive power of the shadow rate for the inflation rate in countries with a zero lower bound (the US, the UK and Canada) and in those with negative rates (Japan, the Euro Area and Switzerland). Using shadow rates obtained from two different models (the Wu-Xia...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013176885