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Market depth, leverage, and speculative bubbles
Enders, Zeno; Hakenes, Hendrik - 2017
We develop a model of rational bubbles based on leverage and the assumption of an imprecisely known maximum market size … lend to traders with limited liability in a bubble is endogenous. Bubbles reduce welfare of future investors. We provide … general conditions for the possibility of bubbles depending on uncertainty about market size, traders' degree of leverage and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011780495
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Financial cycles, credit bubbles and stabilization policies
Corrado, Luisa; Schuler, Tobias - 2018
This paper analyzes the effects of several policy instruments to mitigate financial bubbles generated in the banking … policy instruments in counteracting financial bubbles. We find that an endogenous capital requirement reduces the impact of a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011952012
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Overreaction through anchoring
Bürgi, Constantin; Ortiz, Julio L. - 2022
We show that updates to macroeconomic expectations among professional forecasters exhibit an offsetting pattern where increases in current-quarter predictions lead to decreases in three quarter ahead predictions. We further document evidence of individual overreaction at the quarterly frequency...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013482590
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Double-question survey measures for the analysis of financial bubbles and crashes
Pesaran, M. Hashem; Johnsson, Ida - 2016
This paper proposes a new double-question survey method that elicits information about how individuals.subjective belief valuations are compared and related to their price expectations. An individual respondent is presented with two sets of questions, one that asks about his/her belief regarding...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011586267
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Financial fragility, bubbles and monetary policy
Illing, Gerhard - 2001
The paper models the links between financial fragility, asset markets and monetary policy. It is shown that central bank's concern about the cost of financial disruption generates an asymmetric response, thus contributing to the creation of an asset price bubble. In an economy with a highly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011398119
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The Nordhaus test with many zeros
Lahiri, Kajal; Zhao, Yongchen - 2020
We reformulate the Nordhaus test as a friction model where the large number of zero revisions are treated as censored, i.e., unknown values inside a small region of "imperceptibility." Using Blue Chip individual forecasts of U.S. real GDP growth, inflation, and unemployment over 1985-2020, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012226771
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How accurate are modern value-at-risk estimators derived from extreme value theory?
Auer, Benjamin R.; Mögel, Benjamin - 2016
derived from extreme value theory (EVT). Specifically, in a multi-asset study covering 30 years of stock, bond, commodity and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011587888
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Monetary policy with diverse private expectations
Kurz, Mordecai; Motolese, Maurizio; Piccillo, Giulia; … - 2015 - This version, January 26, 2015
We study the impact of diverse beliefs on conduct of monetary policy. We use a New Keynesian Model solved with a quadratic approximation. Aggregation renders the belief distribution an aggregate state variable. Diverse expectations change standard results about a smooth trade-off between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010496147
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Money is the root of asset bubbles
Awaya, Yu; Iwasaki, Kohei; Watanabe, Makoto - 2024
This paper examines how monetary expansion causes asset bubbles. When there is no monetary expansion, a bubbly asset is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014467370
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Filtering with limited information
Drautzburg, Thorsten; Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús; … - 2024
We propose a new tool to filter non-linear dynamic models that does not require the researcher to specify the model fully and can be implemented without solving the model. If two conditions are satisfied, we can use a flexible statistical model and a known measurement equation to back out the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014632399