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Changing electricity markets : quantifying the price effects of greening the energy matrix

Kohlscheen, Emanuel; Moessner, Richhild - 2022 - Original Version: June 2022, this version: July 2022

We analyse the drivers of European Power Exchange (EPEX) retail electricity prices between 2012 and early 2022 using machine learning. The agnostic random forest approach that we use is able to reduce in-sample root mean square errors (RMSEs) by around 50% when compared to a standard linear...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013262773

Innovation network

Acemoglu, Daron; Akcigit, Ufuk; Kerr, William R. - 2016

Technological progress builds upon itself, with the expansion of invention in one domain propelling future work in linked fields. Our analysis uses 1.8 million U.S. patents and their citation properties to map the innovation network and its strength. Past innovation network structures are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011557905

Fuel efficiency improvements : feedback mechanisms and distributional effects in the oil market

Aune, Finn Roar; Bøeng, Ann Christin; Kverndokk, Snorre; … - 2015

We study the interactions between fuel efficiency improvements in the transport sector and the oil market, where the efficiency improvements are policy-induced in certain regions of the world. We are especially interested in feedback mechanisms of fuel efficiency such as the rebound effect,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011309227

Oil market efficiency, quantity of information, and oil market turbulence

Gronwald, Marc; Wadud, Sania; Dogah, Kingsley - 2024

This paper analyses the informational efficiency of the WTI crude oil markets using a recently proposed quantitative measure for market inefficiency. The procedure measures the extent to which observed oil price behaviour deviates from the Random Walk benchmark which represents an efficient...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014490913

Commodity price shocks and global cycles : monetary policy matters

Castelnuovo, Efrem; Mori, Lorenzo; Peersman, Gert - 2024

We employ a structural VAR model with global and US variables to study the relevance and transmission of oil, food commodities, and industrial input price shocks. We show that commodities are not all alike. Industrial input price changes are almost entirely endogenous responses to other shocks....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014550949

On the impact of oil prices on sectoral inflation : evidence from world's top oil exporters and importers

Ben Salem, Leila; Nouira, Ridha; Rault, Christophe - 2024

This paper investigates the impact of oil price variations on sectoral inflation for a sample of 10 top oil importing and exporting countries. Specifically, we analyze the effects of oil prices on the consumer price index using monthly data spanning the July 2009 to February 2021 period. Two...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014451998

How do oil prices affect the GDP and its components? : new evidence from a time-varying threshold model

Ben Salem, Leila; Nouira, Ridha; Saafi, Sami; Rault, … - 2024

Revealing the precise thresholds at which fluctuations in oil prices start to affect gross domestic product and its various components (consumption, investment, expenditure and exports) holds significant implications for policymakers in both oil-importing and oil-exporting countries. Existing...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014529202

Understanding the decline in the price of oil since June 2014

Baumeister, Christiane; Kilian, Lutz - 2016 - First version: January 21, 2015. This version: September 13, 2015

Some observers have conjectured that the steep decline in the price of oil between June and December 2014 resulted from positive oil supply shocks in the second half of 2014. Others have suggested that a major shock to oil price expectations occurred when in late November 2014 OPEC announced...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011428356

UK natural gas : gas-specific or oil driven pricing?

Asche, Frank; Oglend, Atle; Osmundsen, Petter - 2013

In this paper we investigate the time-varying relationship between oil and natural gas in the UK. We develop a model where relative prices can move between pricing-regimes; markets switch between being decoupled and integrated. Our model endogenously accounts for periods where oil and natural...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010212645

Forecasting the Brent oil price : addressing time-variation in forecast performance

Manescu, Cristiana; Van Robays, Ine - 2016

This paper explores a range of different forecast methods for Brent oil prices and analyses their performance relative … across forecast horizons. To address this instability, we propose a forecast combination for predicting quarterly real Brent … generates forecasts whose performance is robust over time. The improvements in forecast accuracy and stability are noticeable in …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011573261

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