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Delli Gatti, Domenico; Iannotta, Gabriele - 2022

We explore the intertwined dynamics of asset prices and the macroeconomy in a Behavioural model of Credit Cycles (BCC) characterized by a credit friction à la Kiyotaki and Moore and heterogeneous expectations cum heuristic switching à la Brock and Hommes. This behavioural approach allows to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013380476

Housing market dynamics : on the contribution of income shocks and credit constraints

Ortalo-Magné, François; Rady, Sven - 2001

are heterogeneous with respect to income and preferences, and mortgage lending is restricted by a down-payment requirement … following results. (1) Current income of young credit-constrained households affects housing prices independently of aggregate … income. (2) Housing prices and the number of housing transactions are positively correlated. (3) Housing prices over-react to …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011398664

Student earnings expectations : heterogeneity or noise?

Diaz-Serrano, Luis; Hartog, Joop; Nilsson, William; … - 2016 - First draft 12-05-14; revised 26-01-15; this draft 19-09-2016

Students' choices in education can only be based on expected outcomes. Econometric models that infer expectations based on ex post outcomes impose a rational structure of expectations on school performance and post-graduation earnings. Direct surveys suggest much ignorance and fuzziness. We use...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011544177

Home price expectations and spending : evidence from a field experiment

Chopra, Felix; Roth, Christopher; Wohlfart, Johannes - 2023

How do households adjust their spending behavior in response to changes in home price expectations? We conduct a field experiment with a sample of Americans that links survey data on home price expectations to actual spending behaviour as measured in a rich home-scanner dataset. In the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014284713

How do firms form expectations of aggregate growth? : new evidence from a large-scale business survey

Dovern, Jonas; Müller, Lena Sophia; Wohlrabe, Klaus - 2020

Expectations are highly relevant for macroeconomic dynamics. Yet, the empirical evidence about properties of corporate macroeconomic expectations is scarce. Using new survey data on quantitative growth expectations of firms in Germany, we show that expectations are highly dispersed. The degree...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012194628

Subjective well-being and income : is there any evidence of satiation?

Stevenson, Betsey; Wolfers, Justin - 2013 - This draft: April 16, 2013

Many scholars have argued that once "basic needs" have been met, higher income is no longer associated with higher in … about well-being, we find no support for this claim. The relationship between well-being and income is roughly linear …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009736745

The effects of monetary policy : theory with measured expectations

Roth, Christopher; Wiederholt, Mirko; Wohlfart, Johannes - 2023

We study the effects of monetary policy on aggregate consumption combining a heterogeneous agent model with measured expectations under different policy counterfactuals. We express the consumption of non-hand-to-mouth households as a function of expectations only and elicit all expectations...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013489702

How do expectations about the macroeconomy affect personal expectations and behavior?

Roth, Christopher; Wohlfart, Johannes - 2018

Using a representative online panel from the US, we examine how individuals' macroeconomic expectations causally affect their personal economic prospects and their behavior. To exogenously vary respondents' expectations we provide them with different professional forecasts about the likelihood...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011877783

Subjective models of the macroeconomy : evidence from experts and a representative sample

Andre, Peter; Pizzinelli, Carlo; Roth, Christopher; … - 2019

shock, an income tax shock, and an oil price shock. While expert predictions are quantitatively close to benchmarks from …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012104048

Existence of adaptively stable sunspot equilibria near an indeterminate steady state

Evans, George W.; Honkapohja, Seppo - 2001

We examine the nonlinear model Xt = Et F(xt+1) . Markov SSEs exist near an indeterminate steady state, X = F(X), provided F´(X)> 1. We show that there exist Markov SSEs that are E-stable, and therefore locally stable under adaptive learning, if F´(X)< -1.

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011398793