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Examining income expectations in the college and early post-college periods : new distributional tests of rational expectations

Crossley, Thomas F.; Gong, Yifan; Stinebrickner, Todd R.; … - 2021

existing mean-based tests. Beliefs about future income are found to become more accurate as students progress through school …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012417717

Some evolutionary foundations for price level rigidity

Saint-Paul, Gilles - 2002

This paper shows that price rigidity evolves in an economy populated by imperfectly rational agents who experiment with alternative rules of thumb. In the model, firms must set their prices in face of aggregate demand shocks. Their payoff depends on the level of aggregate demand, as well as on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011409938

Heterogeneity in individual expectations, sentiment, and constant-gain learning

Cole, Stephen J.; Milani, Fabio - 2020

The adaptive learning approach has been fruitfully employed to model the formation of aggregate expectations at the macroeconomic level, as an alternative to rational expectations. This paper uses adaptive learning to understand, instead, the formation of expectations at the micro-level, by...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012226634

Income and wealth shocks and expectations during the COVID-19 pandemic

Hanspal, Tobin; Weber, Annika; Wohlfart, Johannes - 2020

effect of the coronavirus crisis on household income and retirement wealth, households’ expectations about the recovery, and … the impact of the shock on individuals’ economic choices. Wealth shocks are large across the population, but more … pronounced for middle-age households and those higher in the wealth and income distributions. This contrasts with income shocks …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012206687

The misspecification of expectations in New Keynesian models : a DSGE-VAR approach

Cole, Stephen J.; Milani, Fabio - 2016

This paper tests the ability of popular New Keynesian models, which are traditionally used to study monetary policy and business cycles, to match the data regarding a key channel for monetary transmission: the dynamic interactions between macroeconomic variables and their corresponding...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011541080

Unemployment and domestic violence : theory and evidence

Anderberg, Dan; Rainer, Helmut; Wadsworth, Jonathan; … - 2013

Is unemployment the overwhelming determinant of domestic violence that many commentators expect it to be? The contribution of this paper is to examine, theoretically and empirically, how changes in unemployment affect the incidence of domestic abuse. The key theoretical prediction is that male...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009764966

Policy uncertainty and information flows : evidence from pension reform expectations

Ciani, Emanuele; Delavande, Adeline; Etheridge, Ben; … - 2019

Subjective expectations about future policy play an important role in individuals' welfare. We examine how workers' expectations about pension reform vary with proximity to reforms, information cost, and aggregate information acquisition. We construct a new pan-European dataset of reform...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012104108

Existence of adaptively stable sunspot equilibria near an indeterminate steady state

Evans, George W.; Honkapohja, Seppo - 2001

We examine the nonlinear model Xt = Et F(xt+1) . Markov SSEs exist near an indeterminate steady state, X = F(X), provided F´(X)> 1. We show that there exist Markov SSEs that are E-stable, and therefore locally stable under adaptive learning, if F´(X)< -1.

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011398793

Expectational stability of resonant frequency sunspot equilibria

Evans, George W.; Honkapohja, Seppo - 2001

We consider the stability under adaptive learning of the complete set of solutions to the model when . In addition to the fundamentals solution, the literature describes both finite-state Markov sunspot solutions, satisfying a resonant frequency condition, and autoregressive solutions depending...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011398912

Monetary policy with diverse private expectations

Kurz, Mordecai; Motolese, Maurizio; Piccillo, Giulia; … - 2015 - This version, January 26, 2015

We study the impact of diverse beliefs on conduct of monetary policy. We use a New Keynesian Model solved with a quadratic approximation. Aggregation renders the belief distribution an aggregate state variable. Diverse expectations change standard results about a smooth trade-off between...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010496147

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