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Forecasting exports across Europe : what are the superior survey indicators?
Lehmann, Robert - 2019 - This version: September 6, 2019
In this study, we systematically evaluate the potential of a bunch of survey-based indicators from different economic branches to forecasting export growth across a multitude of European countries. Our pseudo out-of-sample analyses reveal that the best-performing indicators beat a well-specified...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012104016
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Forecasting imports with information from abroad
Grimme, Christian; Lehmann, Robert; Nöller, Marvin - 2018
Globalization has led to huge increases in import volumes, but the literature on import forecasting is still in its infancy. We introduce the first leading indicator especially constructed for total import growth, the so-called Import Climate. It builds on the idea that the import demand of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011862823
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The collapse speed of China's exports in the 2008-2009 financial crisis
Jing, Ran - 2011
This paper studies the performance of China's exports during the 2008-2009 financial crisis. It focuses on the speed at … which China's exports were hit by this downturn. Product-country monthly exports data is utilized. It is found that GDP … trade prior to the crisis are hit by the recession earlier than other products. -- China ; exports collapse ; speed …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009303944
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Tariffs, trade and productivity : a quantitative evaluation of heterogeneous firm models
Breinlich, Holger; Cuñat, Alejandro - 2013
We examine the quantitative predictions of heterogeneous firm models à la Melitz (2003) in the context of the Canada - US Free Trade Agreement (CUSFTA) of 1989. We compute predicted increases in trade flows and measured productivity across a range of standard models and compare them to the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009773860
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The falling elasticity of global trade to economic activity : testing the demand channel
Auboin, Marc; Borino, Floriana - 2018
Since the recovery from the great financial crisis in 2010, global real trade flows grew much slower than pre-crisis, in both absolute terms (growth rates) and relative terms (relative to GDP, from 2:1 in the great 1990's to 1:1 since 2012) A debate has arisen as to whether this global trade...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011900772
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Prediction markets for economic forecasting
Snowberg, Erik; Wolfers, Justin; Zitzewitz, Eric - 2012
Prediction markets - markets used to forecast future events - have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of political contests, sporting events, and, occasionally, economic outcomes. This chapter summarizes the latest research on prediction markets in order to further their utilization by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009571041
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Forecasting tail risks : presented at CESifo Area Conference on Macro, Money and International Finance, February 2015
De Nicolò, Gianni; Lucchetta, Marcella - 2015
Reliable early warning signals are essential for timely implementation of macroeconomic and macro-prudential policies. This paper presents an early warning system as a set of multi-period forecasts of indicators of tail real and financial (systemic) risks. Forecasts are obtained from: (a)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010498601
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Boosting tax revenues with mixed-frequency data in the aftermath of Covid-19 : the case of New York
Lahiri, Kajal; Cheng, Yang - 2021
We forecast New York state tax revenues with a mixed-frequency model using a number of machine learning techniques. We found boosting with two dynamic factors extracted from a select list of New York and U.S. leading indicators did best in terms of correctly updating revenues for the fiscal year...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012649777
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Tackling large outliers in macroeconomic data with vector artificial neural network autoregression
Polito, Vito; Zhang, Yunyi - 2021
We develop a regime switching vector autoregression where artificial neural networks drive time variation in the coefficients of the conditional mean of the endogenous variables and the variance covariance matrix of the disturbances. The model is equipped with a stability constraint to ensure...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012668293
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Simply a matter of luck & looks? : predicting elections when both the world economy and the psychology of faces count
Garretsen, Harry; Stoker, Janka I.; Alessie, Rob; … - 2014
Economic research shows that candidates have a higher chance of getting (re-)elected when they have the luck that the world economy does well even though this is beyond their control and unrelated to their competence. Psychological research demonstrates that candidates increase their chances if...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010370176