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Central bank policy rates : are they cointegrated?

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Carcel, Hector; Gil-Alaña, … - 2017

This paper analyses the stochastic properties of and the bilateral linkages between the central bank policy rates of the US, the Eurozone, Australia, Canada, Japan and the UK using fractional integration and cointegration techniques respectively. The univariate analysis suggests a high degree of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011619627

Assessing the macroeconomic forecasting performance of boosting : evidence for the United States, the Euro Area, and Germany

Buchen, Teresa; Wohlrabe, Klaus - 2013

The use of large datasets for macroeconomic forecasting has received a great deal of interest recently. Boosting is one possible method of using high-dimensional data for this purpose. It is a stage-wise additive modelling procedure, which, in a linear specification, becomes a variable selection...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009721997

ROC and PRC approaches to evaluate recession forecasts

Lahiri, Kajal; Cheng, Yang - 2023

We have studied the relationship between Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) and Precision-Recall Curve (PRC) both analytically and using a real-life empirical example of yield spread as a predictor of recessions. We show that false alarm rate in ROC and inverted precision in PRC are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014284725

Forecasting random walks under drift instability

Pesaran, M. Hashem (contributor); Pick, Andreas (contributor) - 2008

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003711763

Forecast uncertainties in macroeconometric modelling : an application to the UK economy

Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2000

intervals. Probability forecasts relating to UK output growth and inflation, obtained using a small macroeconometric model, are … presented. We discuss in detail the probability that inflation will fall within the Bank of England's target range and that … insights on the interrelatedness of output growth and inflation outcomes at different horizons. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009781626

Testing the Fisher hypothesis in the G-7 Countries using i(d) techniques

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alaña, Luis A. - 2017

, linking nominal interest rates to inflation; however, there is no evidence of the full adjustment of the former to the latter …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011654734

Tracking and predicting the German economy : ifo vs. PMI

Lehmann, Robert; Reif, Magnus - 2020

This analysis investigates the predictive power of the most important leading indicators for the German economy, which are provided by the ifo Institute and IHS Markit. We conduct an out-of-sample, real-time forecast experiment for growth of gross domestic product and growth of gross value added...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012174766

The forecasting power of the ifo business survey

Lehmann, Robert - 2020

The ifo Institute is Germany’s largest business survey provider, with the ifo Business Climate Germany as one of the most important leading indicators for gross domestic product. However, the ifo Business Survey is not solely limited to the Business Climate and also delivers a multitude of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012219339

Estimation of the TFP gap for the largest five EMU countries

Carstensen, Kai; Kießner, Felix; Rossian, Thies - 2023

In this paper we augment the Bayesian unobserved components model of the EU Commission to estimate the cyclical component of total factor productivity (TFP gap) with a factor structure to include a wide array of business cycle indicators. We demonstrate that this model extension considerably...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013503372

A multi-country approach to forecasting output growth using PMIs

Chudik, Alexander; Grossman, Valerie; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2014

This paper derives new theoretical results for forecasting with Global VAR (GVAR) models. It is shown that the presence of a strong unobserved common factor can lead to an undeter-mined GVAR model. To solve this problem, we propose augmenting the GVAR with additional proxy equations for the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010438196

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