This paper conducts a broad-based comparison of iterated and direct multi-step forecasting approaches applied to both univariate and multivariate models. Theoretical results and Monte Carlo simulations suggest that iterated forecasts dominate direct forecasts when estimation error is a...

This paper proposes a Bayesian estimation framework for panel-data sets with binary dependent variables where a large number of cross-sectional units is observed over a short period of time, and cross-sectional units are interdependent in more than a single network domain. The latter provides...

This paper investigates output convergence for the G7 countries using multivariate time series techniques. We consider both the null hypotheses of no convergence and convergence. It is shown that inferences on output convergence depend on which one of the two null hypotheses is considered....

Forecasts play a central role in decision making under uncertainty. After a brief review of the general issues, this paper considers ways of using high-dimensional data in forecasting. We consider selecting variables from a known active set, known knowns, using Lasso and OCMT, and approximating...

This paper investigates the empirical relevance of different unemployment theories in three major economies, namely the UK, the US and Japan, by estimating the degree of dependence in the unemployment series. Both univariate and multivariate long memory methods are used. The results vary...