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international shock that drives national inflation uncertainty and which is closely related to oil and commodity price uncertainty …We investigate the international linkages of inflation uncertainty in the G7. In a first step, we document that … inflation uncertainty in the G7 is intertwined. Moreover, the degree of synchronization has increased during the recent two …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009730542
This paper estimates a time-varying AR-GARCH model of inflation producing measures of inflation uncertainty for the … policy regime change associated with the start of EMU in 1999. The main findings are as follows. Steady-state inflation and … inflation uncertainty have declined steadily since the inception of EMU, whilst short-run uncertainty has increased, mainly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003871923
Earlier studies of the seigniorage inflation model have found that the high-inflation steady state is not stable under … on stationary hyperinflationary paths near the high-inflation steady state. The hyperinflationary paths are stable under …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011507885
as large as those arising from an aggregate productivity shock. Heterogeneous price rigidity amplifies the aggregate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011891743
We show that price level stabilization is not optimal in an economy where agents have incomplete knowledge about the policy implemented and try to learn it. A systematically more accommodative policy than what agents expect generates short term gains without triggering an abrupt loss of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010474823
natural experiment to identify the effect of a global political shock on expectations about national inflation rates. We find … favour an immediate reaction of monetary policy to the increased inflation, which gives further evidence of the shock being … inflation expectations among 145 tenured economics professors in Germany and exploit the 2022 Russian invasion in Ukraine as a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013167248
This survey features three parts. The first one covers the recent literature on domestic (i.e., country-specific) uncertainty and offers ten main takeaways. The second part reviews contributions on the fast-growing strand of the literature focusing on the macroeconomic effects of uncertainty...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012119543
prices rises sharply for input constraint firms in response to an expansionary monetary policy shock, independent of their …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013540705
Is inflation (still) a global phenomenon? We study the international co-movement of inflation based on a dynamic factor … explains approximately 58% of the variation in headline inflation across all countries and over 72% in OECD economies. The … explanatory power of global inflation is equally high in a shorter sample spanning the time since 2000. Core inflation is also …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014551069
We analyze optimal monetary policy and its implications for asset prices, when aggregate demand has inertia and responds to asset prices with a lag. If there is a negative output gap, the central bank optimally overshoots aggregate asset prices (asset prices are initially pushed above their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013093040