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Carry funding and safe haven currencies : a threshold regression approach
Hossfeld, Oliver; MacDonald, Ronald - 2014
the estimation results, two currencies, the Swiss franc and (to a lesser extent) the US dollar qualify as safe haven … currencies, and the euro serves as a hedge currency. Results for the yen support its role as a carry funding vehicle, but not …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010462763
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Exchange rates and sovereign risk : a nonlinear approach based on local Gaussian correlations
Heinlein, Reinhold; Legrenzi, Gabriella; Mahadeo, Scott … - 2024
We empirically assess the interlinkages between sovereign risk, measured in terms of CDS spreads, and exchange rates for a sample of emerging markets. Our period of analysis includes periods of severe stress, such as the Global Financial Crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukrainian War. Using...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014505308
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International portfolio flows and exchange rate volatility for emerging markets
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Ali, Faek Menla; Spagnolo, Fabio - 2015
This paper investigates the effects of equity and bond portfolio in.ows on exchange rate volatility, using monthly … probability Markov-switching model. We find that net equity (bond) inflows drive the exchange rate to a high (low) volatility … state. In particular, net bond inflows increase the probability of remaining in the low volatility state in the case of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011387464
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The Euro/Dollar exchange rate : chaotic or non-chaotic?
Federici, Daniela; Gandolfo, Giancarlo - 2011
The aim of this paper is to develop a continuous time exchange rate model that allows for heterogeneity of the agents' beliefs, in order to explore non-linearities and possible chaotic behaviour. The theoretical model contains an intrinsic non-linearity that gives rise to a jerk differential...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009011774
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Systematic consumption risk in currency returns
Hoffmann, Mathias; Suter, Rahel - 2013
We sort currencies by countries' consumption growth over the past four quarters. Currency portfolios of countries experiencing consumption booms have higher Sharpe ratios than those of countries going through a consumption-based recession. A carry strategy that goes short in countries that are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009752999
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When carry goes bad : the magnitude, causes, and duration of currency carry unwinds
Melvin, Michael; Shand, Duncan - 2016
We analyze the worst currency carry loss episodes in recent decades, including causes, attribution by currency, timing, and the duration of carry drawdowns. To explore the determinants of the length of carry losses, a model of carry drawdown duration is estimated. We find evidence that drawdown...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011568722
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Volatility transmission in emerging European foreign exchange markets
Bubák, Vít; Kočenda, Evžen; Zikes, Filip - 2010
This paper studies the dynamics of volatility transmission between Central European currencies and euro/dollar foreign … exchange using model-free estimates of daily exchange rate volatility based on intraday data. We formulate a flexible yet … parsimonious parametric model in which the daily realized volatility of a given exchange rate depends both on its own lags as well …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003969723
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Forecasting exchange rates : an investor perspective
Melvin, Michael; Prins, John; Shand, Duncan - 2013
The popular scholarly exercise of evaluating exchange rate forecasting models relative to a random walk was stimulated by the well-cited Meese and Rogoff (1983) paper. Practitioners who construct quantitative models for trading exchange rates approach forecasting from a different perspective....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009743826
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The crisis in the foreign exchange market
Melvin, Michael; Taylor, Mark P. - 2009
implications for exchange rates, volatility, returns to currency investing, and transaction costs. This blow-by-blowʺ narrative is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003861767
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The causal effect of the Dollar on trade
Ma, Sai; Schmidt-Eisenlohr, Tim; Zhang, Shaojun - 2020
This paper establishes a causal link between the dollar exchange rate and international trade flows, employing a new instrument for the U.S. Dollar that is based on domestic U.S. housing activity (Ma and Zhang (2019)). In line with the dominant currency paradigm (Gopinath et al. (2020)), import...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012319440