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Liberalizing Russian gas markets : an economic analysis
Aune, Finn Roar; Golombek, Rolf; Hallre, Hilde; Moe, Arild - 2015
subsidies, and how changes in Russian gas consumption may affect its gas export to Europe. We also examine the importance of … Russian pipeline capacity to Europe, as well as impacts of hypothetical changes in Russian gas export behavior. For this … purpose, we use a detailed numerical model for the energy markets in Europe and Russia - LIBEMOD. Our results suggest that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010533092
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An empirical analysis of the dynamics of the welfare state : the case of benefit morale
Halla, Martin; Lackner, Mario; Schneider, Friedrich - 2009
Does the supply of a welfare state create its own demand? Many economic scholars studying welfare arrangements refer to Say's law and insinuate a self-destructive welfare state. However, little is known about the empirical validity of these assumptions and hypotheses. We study the dynamic effect...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003850182
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A fair price for energy? : ownership versus market opening in the EU15
Fiorio, Carlo V.; Florio, Massimo - 2010
In the past two decades privatisation and liberalisation of network industries providing services of general economic interest (SGEI), have been particularly significant in the European Union. Wide variations around a common policy trend can, however, be observed across countries and sectors. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003985907
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Inside the crystal ball : new approaches to predicting the gasoline price at the pump
Baumeister, Christiane; Kilian, Lutz; Lee, Thomas - 2016
Although there is much interest in the future retail price of gasoline among consumers, industry analysts, and policymakers, it is widely believed that changes in the price of gasoline are essentially unforecastable given publicly available information. We explore several new forecasting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011429580
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Jump processes in natural gas markets
Mason, Charles F.; Wilmot, Neil - 2014
Natural gas is likely to become increasingly important in the future. Understanding the stochastic underpinnings of natural gas prices will be critical, both to policy analysts and to market participants. To this end, we investigate the potential presence of jumps in natural gas spot prices in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010235818
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Modeling UK natural gas prices when gas prices periodically decouple from the oil price
Asche, Frank; Oglend, Atle; Osmundsen, Petter - 2015
When natural gas prices are subject to periodic decoupling from oil prices, for instance due to peak-load pricing, conventional linear models of price dynamics such as the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) can lead to erroneous inferences about cointegration relationships, price adjustments...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010486860
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UK natural gas : gas-specific or oil driven pricing?
Asche, Frank; Oglend, Atle; Osmundsen, Petter - 2013
In this paper we investigate the time-varying relationship between oil and natural gas in the UK. We develop a model where relative prices can move between pricing-regimes; markets switch between being decoupled and integrated. Our model endogenously accounts for periods where oil and natural...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010212645
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Why Germany's "gas price brake" encourages moral hazard and raises gas prices
Dertwinkel-Kalt, Markus; Wey, Christian - 2022
To help German households and firms with exploding energy costs, the German government is about to implement a new transfer scheme called "gas price brake." A unique feature of this energy price relief measure is that both households and the industry receive a transfer that increases in one's...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013473667
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Expectations and speculation in the natural gas markets
Anderl, Christina; Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2024
This paper aims to assess the role of expectations as a determinant of the real price of natural gas. To measure expectations-driven speculative demand three approaches are followed, which are based respectively on using natural gas inventories consistently with the theory of storage (Kilian and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015065319
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Sudden stop : supply and demand shocks in the German natural gas market
Güntner, Jochen; Reif, Magnus; Wolters, Maik H. - 2024
We use a structural VAR model to study the German natural gas market and investigate the impact of the 2022 Russian supply stop on the German economy. Combining conventional and narrative sign restrictions, we find that gas supply and demand shocks have large and persistent price effects, while...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014576948