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How do expectations about the macroeconomy affect personal expectations and behavior?
Roth, Christopher; Wohlfart, Johannes - 2018
Using a representative online panel from the US, we examine how individuals' macroeconomic expectations causally affect their personal economic prospects and their behavior. To exogenously vary respondents' expectations we provide them with different professional forecasts about the likelihood...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011877783
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Beliefs about the stock market and investment choices : evidence from a field experiment
Laudenbach, Christine; Weber, Annika; Wohlfart, Johannes - 2021
We survey retail investors at an online bank to study beliefs about the autocorrelation of aggregate stock returns, and how these beliefs shape investment decisions measured in administrative account data. Individuals' beliefs exhibit substantial heterogeneity and predict trading responses to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012669739
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Reason, intuition, and time
Sahm, Marco - 2014 - This version: December 4, 2014
We study the influence of reason and intuition on decision making over time. Facing a sequence of similar problems, agents can either decide rationally according to expected utility theory or intuitively according to case-based decision theory. Rational decisions are more precise but create...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010464891
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Counter intuitive learning : an exploratory study
Hanaki, Nobuyuki; Kirman, Alan P.; Pezanis-Christou, Paul - 2016
The literature on learning in unknown environments emphasises reinforcing on actions which produce positive results. But, in some cases, success requires shifting from a currently successful actions to others. We examine, experimentally and theoretically in a very simple framework, how...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011517970
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Time will tell : recovering preferences when choices are noisy
Alós-Ferrer, Carlos; Fehr, Ernst; Netzer, Nick - 2018 - This version: October 2018
The ability to uncover preferences from choices is fundamental for both positive economics and welfare analysis. Overwhelming evidence shows that choice is stochastic, which has given rise to random utility models as the dominant paradigm in applied microeconomics. However, as is well known, it...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011929616
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Audi alteram partem : an experiment on selective exposure to information
Montanari, Giovanni; Nunnari, Salvatore - 2023
We report the results of an experiment on selective exposure to information. A decision maker interested in learning about an uncertain state of the world can acquire information from one of two sources which have opposite biases: when informed on the state, they report it truthfully; when...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014383694
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A model of reference-dependent belief updating
Maier, Johannes K.; König, Clemens - 2016
gains and losses against the belief's objective performance. Consistent with empirical evidence, belief updating in this … model is conservative and can be asymmetric, so that bad news is updated more conservatively than good news. These updating … are information seeking otherwise. Because belief updating depends on the decision problem in which new information is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011557745
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Ambiguity attitudes of individuals and groups in gain and loss domains
Minnich, Aljoscha; Lange, Andreas - 2023
This study measures the differences in ambiguity attitudes of groups and individuals in the gain and loss domain. We … elicit the ambiguity attitudes and ambiguity-generated insensitivity for natural temperature events. We do not find … significant differences between individuals and groups in our main sample, yet higher ambiguity aversion and ambiguity …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014431395
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Ambiguity attitudes and surprises : experimental evidence on communicating new information within a large population sample
Minnich, Aljoscha; Roggenkamp, Hauke; Lange, Andreas - 2023
us to analyze sociodemographic correlates of ambiguity attitudes and the updating of ambiguity attitudes to new …This paper investigates ambiguity attitudes for natural events (temperatures) and how they are updated following new … information. Using a general population sample, we first obtain baseline ambiguity attitudes for future weather events based on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014431440
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The devil you know : rational inattention to discrete choices when prior information matters
Pellegrino, Bruno - 2023
In the seminal rational inattention model of Matĕjka and McKay (2015), logit demand arises from the discrete choice of agents who are uncertain about choice payoffs and have access to a flexible, costly information acquisition technology (RI-logit). A notable limitation of this powerful...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014247316