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contacts drastically in the beginning, to almost eradicate the epidemic, and keeps them at around a third of pre … epidemic in the laissez faire, though at a prevalence of infections much higher than optimal. Impure altruistic behaviour …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012226761
We contrast the canonical epidemiological SIR model due to Kermack and McKendrick (1927) with more tractable alternatives that offer similar degrees of "realism" and exibility. We provide results connecting the different models which can be exploited for calibration purposes. We use the expected...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012226626
This paper presents a first model integrating the relation between biodiversity loss and zoonose pandemic risks in a general equilibrium dynamic economic set-up. The occurrence of pandemics is modeled as Poissonian leaps in economic variables. The planner can intervene in the economic and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012263718
epidemic hazard prediction, we use data from 2014-2019 to compute measures for exposure, vulnerability, and resilience of the … local economy to the shock of an epidemic. Using a battery of proxies for these four concepts, we calculate the hazard (the … zoonotic source of a possible epidemic), the principal components of exposure and vulnerability to it, and of the economy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012156716
We embed a lockdown choice in a simplified epidemiological model and derive formulas for the optimal lockdown intensity and duration. The optimal policy reflects the rate of time preference, epidemiological factors, the hazard rate of vaccine discovery, learning effects in the health care...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012206448
during an epidemic? We study a setting where ICU resources are constrained while suppression is costly (e.g., limiting … suppression measures are continuously taken to hold down the spread throughout the epidemic, is suboptimal. Instead, the optimal … suppression is discountinuous. The epidemic should be left unregulated in a first phase and when the ICU constraint is approaching …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012219144
, vulnerability, and resilience of the local economy to the shock of the epidemic. Using a battery of proxies for these four concepts …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012231556
We derive a model in which firms operate in an epidemic environment and internalize infections among their employees in … the workplace. The model is calibrated to fit the properties of the Covid-19 epidemic. We show that firms have incentives …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012258622
We propose a flexible model of infectious dynamics with a single endogenous state variable and economic choices. We characterize equilibrium, optimal outcomes, static and dynamic externalities, and prove the following: (i) A lockdown generically is followed by policies to stimulate activity....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012388160
) to evaluate the effects of vaccinations and variants on the epidemic and macroeconomic outlook. Vaccination plays the …, increasing the volatility of epidemic curves and worsening the macroeconomic outlook. If a more contagious variant emerges after …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012619411