This paper provides a detailed assessment of the real-time forecast accuracy of a wide range of vector autoregressive …

are provided by the ifo Institute and IHS Markit. We conduct an out-of-sample, real-time forecast experiment for growth of …

Business Climate and also delivers a multitude of further indicators to forecast several important economic variables. This … paper gives a literature overview over existing studies that deal with the forecasting power of various ifo indicators both … powerful tool both for an in-depth business cycle diagnosis and for applied forecasting work. …

We have argued that from the standpoint of a policy maker, the uncertainty of using the average forecast is not the … that the uncertainty of the average forecast can be expressed as the disagreement among the forecasters plus the volatility … the conceptually correct benchmark forecast uncertainty. …

uncertainty of a combined forecast should be interpreted as that of a typical forecaster randomly drawn from the pool. With a … some previously used measures significantly underestimate the conceptually correct benchmark forecast uncertainty. …

-time out-of-sample forecasting comparison study with one of the most widely used data sets in the newer forecasting literature … for forecasting consumption developments. …

stock returns, we show that no single forecasting approach dominates uniformly. However, forecast combination and shrinkage …We develop novel forecasting methods for panel data with heterogeneous parameters and examine them together with … forecasting methods can perform better than forecasts based on individual estimates and demonstrate how gains in predictive …

nowcasting and forecasting quarterly world GDP using mixed-frequency models. We find that a recently proposed indicator that … covers multiple dimensions of the global economy consistently produces substantial improvements in forecast accuracy, while … coronavirus pandemic and quantify the main factors driving the nowcasts. …