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Expectations and the stability of stock-flow consistent models

Meijers, Huub; Muysken, Joan; Piccillo, Giulia - 2023

Expectations are usually introduced in macroeconomic stock-flow consistent models (SFC-models from hereon) in an ad hoc way, without much motivation. Moreover, these are usually very simple forms of expectations, and certainly not some form of rational expectations. The implicit assumption is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014383687

Global cycles : capital flows, commodities, and sovereign defaults, 1815-2015

Reinhart, Carmen M.; Reinhart, Vincent; Trebesch, Christoph - 2016 - This draft: January 13, 2016

Capital flow and commodity cycles have long been connected with economic crises. Sparse historical data, however, has made it difficult to connect their timing. We date turning points in global capital flows and commodity prices across two centuries and provide estimates from alternative data...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011421571

Macro news and commodity returns

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Spagnolo, Fabio; Spagnolo, Nicola - 2015

This paper adopts a VAR-GARCH approach to model the dynamic linkages between both the mean and the variance of macro news and commodity returns (Gold, Corn, Wheat, Soybeans, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Copper, Aluminium and Crude Oil) over the period 01/01/2001-26/09/2014. The chosen...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011346863

Pegxit pressure : evidence from the classical gold standard

Mitchener, Kris; Pina, Gonçalo - 2016

We develop a simple model that highlights the costs and benefits of fixed exchange rates as they relate to trade, and show that negative export-price shocks reduce fiscal revenue and increase the likelihood of an expected currency devaluation. Using a new high-frequency data set on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011568741

Unemployment in a commodity-rich economy : how relevant is Dutch Disease?

Kulish, Mariano; Morley, James C.; Yamout, Nadine; … - 2024

We examine the relevance of Dutch Disease through the lens of an open-economy multisector model that features unemployment due to labor market frictions. Bayesian estimates for the model quantify the effects of both business cycle shocks and structural changes on the unemployment rate. Applying...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014528211

Connectedness between the crude oil futures and equity markets during the pre- and post-financialisation eras

Wadud, Sania; Durand, Robert B.; Gronwald, Marc - 2021

This paper examines the effect of financialisation of futures markets has on the relationship between crude oil futures … volatility, namely, seasonality and maturity effects for the pre-financialisation (1993-2003) and post-financialisation (2004 … futures' volatility before the financialisation period, open interest as a measure of liquidity has a negative effect after …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012599014

EU solidarity and policy in fighting infectious diseases : state of play, obstacles, citizen preferences and ways forward

Ruijter, Anniek de; Beetsma, Roel; Burgoon, Brian; … - 2020

In this paper we confront the role the EU traditionally plays in the domain of health with the urgent need for collective action triggered by the corona virus pandemic. In the face of such a crisis, we argue that the joint procurement, stockpiling and allocation of medical countermeasures is a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012200320

Labor markets during the covid-19 crisis : a preliminary view

Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Weber, Michael - 2020

We use a repeated large-scale survey of households in the Nielsen Homescan panel to characterize how labor markets are being affected by the covid-19 pandemic. We document several facts. First, job loss has been significantly larger than implied by new unemployment claims: we estimate 20 million...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012206097

On the optimal "lockdown" during an epidemic

Gonzalez-Eiras, Martín; Niepelt, Dirk - 2020

We embed a lockdown choice in a simplified epidemiological model and derive formulas for the optimal lockdown intensity and duration. The optimal policy reflects the rate of time preference, epidemiological factors, the hazard rate of vaccine discovery, learning effects in the health care...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012206448

The global effects of Covid-19-induced uncertainty

Caggiano, Giovanni; Castelnuovo, Efrem; Kima, Richard - 2020

We estimate a three-variate VAR using proxies of global financial uncertainty, the global financial cycle, and world industrial production to simulate the effects of the jump in financial uncertainty observed in correspondence of the Covid-19 outbreak. We predict the cumulative loss in world...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012213164

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