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Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Plastun, Alex - 2023

This paper examines the main drawbacks of technical analysis. Although this is widely used by practitioners, from an academic perspective it can only be seen as a form of "voodoo finance". In particular, it runs into the following pitfalls: Subjectivity; Doubtful assumptions; Unjustified...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013489574

Predictability of bull and bear markets : a new look at forecasting stock market regimes (and returns) in the US

Haase, Felix; Neuenkirch, Matthias - 2021

-switching models, and forecast combination to predict the dynamics in the S&P 500. First, we aggregate the weekly information of 115 …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012416151

The information content of dividends : safer profits, not higher profits

Michaely, Roni; Rossi, Stefano; Weber, Michael - 2017 - This version: October 2017

model's predictions, cash-flow volatility changes in the opposite direction from that of dividend changes and larger changes …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011754236

A general approach to recovering market expectations from futures prices with an application to crude oil

Baumeister, Christiane; Kilian, Lutz - 2016

Futures markets are a potentially valuable source of information about price expectations. Exploiting this information has proved difficult in practice, because time-varying risk premia often render the futures price a poor measure of the market expectation of the price of the underlying asset....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011434566

Expectation dispersion, uncertainty, and the reaction to news

Born, Benjamin; Dovern, Jonas; Enders, Zeno - 2020

Releases of key macroeconomic indicators are closely watched by financial markets. We investigate the role of expectation dispersion and economic uncertainty for the stock-market reaction to indicator releases. We find that the strength of the financial market response to news decreases with the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012404549

Forecasting tail risks : presented at CESifo Area Conference on Macro, Money and International Finance, February 2015

De Nicolò, Gianni; Lucchetta, Marcella - 2015

Reliable early warning signals are essential for timely implementation of macroeconomic and macro-prudential policies. This paper presents an early warning system as a set of multi-period forecasts of indicators of tail real and financial (systemic) risks. Forecasts are obtained from: (a)...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010498601

Forecasting random walks under drift instability

Pesaran, M. Hashem (contributor); Pick, Andreas (contributor) - 2008

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003711763

Inside the crystal ball : new approaches to predicting the gasoline price at the pump

Baumeister, Christiane; Kilian, Lutz; Lee, Thomas - 2016

information. We explore several new forecasting approaches for the U.S. retail price of gasoline and compare their accuracy with … the no-change forecast. Our key finding is that substantial reductions in the mean-squared prediction error (MSPE) of … accuracy. The most accurate individual model is a VAR(1) model for real retail gasoline and Brent crude oil prices. Even …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011429580

Measuring uncertainty of a combined forecast and some tests for forecaster heterogeneity

Lahiri, Kajal; Peng, Huaming; Sheng, Xuguang - 2015

We have argued that from the standpoint of a policy maker, the uncertainty of using the average forecast is not the … that the uncertainty of the average forecast can be expressed as the disagreement among the forecasters plus the volatility … the conceptually correct benchmark forecast uncertainty. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011305389

Forecasting imports with information from abroad

Grimme, Christian; Lehmann, Robert; Nöller, Marvin - 2018

Globalization has led to huge increases in import volumes, but the literature on import forecasting is still in its infancy. We introduce the first leading indicator especially constructed for total import growth, the so-called Import Climate. It builds on the idea that the import demand of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011862823