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Investors' return expectations are pivotal in stock markets, but the reasoning behind these expectations remains a black box for economists. This paper sheds light on economic agents' mental models - their subjective understanding - of the stock market, drawing on surveys with the US general...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014383579
We analyze how investor expectations about economic growth and stock returns changed during the February-March 2020 stock market crash induced by the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as during the subsequent partial stock market recovery. We surveyed retail investors who are clients of Vanguard at...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012224226
. Uncertainty, in contrast, increases the response. We rationalize our findings in a model of imperfect information. In the model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012404549
Bubbles are omnipresent in lab experiments with asset markets. Most of these experiments were conducted in environments with only human traders. Today markets are substantially determined by algorithmic traders. Here we use a laboratory experiment to measure changes of human trading behavior if...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011392621
When Bayesian risk-averse investors are uncertain about their assets' cash flows' exposure to systematic risk, stock prices react more to news in downturns than in upturns, implying higher volatility in downturns and negatively skewed returns. The reason is that, in good times, less desirable...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011794118
We investigate the dynamics of prices, information and expectations in a competitive, noisy, dynamic asset pricing … only if traders over- (under-) rely on public information with respect to optimal statistical weights. Both phenomena, in … uncertainty, over-reliance on public information obtains if noise trade displays low persistence. This defines a Keynesianʺ region …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003897551
This paper is concerned with empirical and theoretical basis of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). The paper begins with an overview of the statistical properties of asset returns at different frequencies (daily, weekly and monthly), and considers the evidence on return predictability, risk...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003983206
We propose a theory that jointly accounts for an asset illiquidity and for the asset price potential over-reliance on … public information. We argue that, when trading frequencies differ across traders, asset prices reflect investors' Higher … Order Expectations (HOEs) about the two factors that influence the aggregate demand: fundamentals information and liquidity …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009011130
Futures markets are a potentially valuable source of information about price expectations. Exploiting this information …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011434566
One possible determinant of overpricing on asset markets is a lack of self-control abilities of traders. Self-control is the individual capacity to override or inhibit undesired behavioral tendencies such as impulses and to refrain from acting on them. We implement the first experiment that is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011444434