In this study, we compare the out-of-sample forecasting performance of several modern Value-at- Risk (VaR) estimators derived from extreme value theory (EVT). Specifically, in a multi-asset study covering 30 years of stock, bond, commodity and currency market data, we analyse the accuracy of the...

This paper considers the problem of model uncertainty in the case of multi-asset volatility models and discusses the use of model averaging techniques as a way of dealing with the risk of inadvertently using false models in portfolio management. In particular, it is shown that under certain...

We propose a novel method of Mean-Capital Requirement portfolio optimization. The optimization is performed using a parallel framework for optimization based on the Nondominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II. Capital requirements for market risk include an additional stress component introduced...

We measure the economic risk of epidemics at a geo-spatially detailed resolution. In addition to data about the epidemic hazard prediction, we use data from 2014-2019 to compute measures for exposure, vulnerability, and resilience of the local economy to the shock of an epidemic. Using a battery...

We examine how the tail risk of currency returns over the past 20 years were impacted by central bank (monetary and liquidity) measures across the globe with an original and unique dataset that we make publicly available. Using a standard factor model, we derive theoretical measures of tail...

This paper uncovers if and how insurance companies react to shocks to collateral in their portfolio of securitized assets. We address this question in the context of commercial real estate cash flow shocks, which are informationally opaque to holders of commercial mortgage-backed securities...

We explore the impact of mortgage securitization on the international diversification of macroeconomic risk. By making mortgage-related risks internationally tradeable, securitization contributes considerably to better international consumption risk sharing: we find that countries with the most...

A healthy financial system encourages the efficient allocation of capital and risk. The collapse of the house price bubble led to the financial crisis that started in 2007. There is a large empirical literature concerning the relation between asset price bubbles and financial crises. I evaluate...