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Economic policy uncertainty spillovers in booms and busts
Caggiano, Giovanni; Castelnuovo, Efrem; Figueres, Juan … - 2018
of the 2-year ahead forecast error of the Canadian unemployment rate in periods of slack vs. just 2% during economic … due to US EPU shocks are also found for the UK economy. This evidence, which refers to a large economy having a low trade … intensity with the US, supports our view that a channel other than trade could be behind our empirical results. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011862894
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Economic policy uncertainty and unemployment in the United States : a nonlinear approach
Caggiano, Giovanni; Castelnuovo, Efrem; Figueres, Juan … - 2018
be statistically and economically larger in recessions. A state-contingent forecast error variance decomposition analysis …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011864417
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Sudden stop : supply and demand shocks in the German natural gas market
Güntner, Jochen; Reif, Magnus; Wolters, Maik H. - 2024
We use a structural VAR model to study the German natural gas market and investigate the impact of the 2022 Russian supply stop on the German economy. Combining conventional and narrative sign restrictions, we find that gas supply and demand shocks have large and persistent price effects, while...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014576948
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Lockdown policies : a macrodynamic perspective for COVID-19
Busato, Francesco; Chiarini, Bruno; Cisco, Gianluigi; … - 2020
The COVID-19 pandemic is producing a global health and economic crisis. The entire globe is facing the trade …-off between health and recessionary effects. This paper investigates this trade-off according to a macro-dynamic perspective. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012258268
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Different no more : country spreads in advanced and emerging economies
Born, Benjamin; Müller, Gernot J.; Pfeifer, Johannes; … - 2020
Interest-rate spreads fluctuate widely across time and countries. We characterize their behavior using some 3,200 quarterly observations for 21 advanced and 17 emerging economies since the early 1990s. Before the financial crisis, spreads are 10 times more volatile in emerging economies than in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012162762
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The macroeconomic policy challenges of balance sheet recession : lessons from Japan for the European crisis
Schnabl, Gunther - 2013
The paper compares the boom-and-bust cycles in Japan and Europe with respect to the reasons for excessive booms, the characteristics of the crises, and the (potential) effects of the crisis therapies. As in Japan the consequence of expansionary monetary and fiscal policies is the hysteresis of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009743745
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Switching-track after the great recession
Vinci, Francesca; Licandro, Omar - 2021
We propose a theoretical framework to reconcile episodes of V-shaped and L-shaped recovery, encompassing the behaviour of the U.S. economy before and after the Great Recession. In a DSGE model with endogenous growth, negative demand shocks destroy productive capacity, moving GDP to a lower...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012533939
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Investigating the U.S. oil-macroeconomy nexus using rolling impulse responses
Gronwald, Marc - 2009
This paper is concerned with the apparent change in the U.S. oil price-macroeconomy relationship. It is investigated to what extent this change can be accounted for by the large oil price surges witnessed in the 1970s. The innovative approach of rolling impulse responses is applied and both the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003857164
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Coherence of output gaps in the euro area : the impact of the Covid-19 shock
Haan, Jakob de; Jacobs, Jan; Zijm, Renske - 2022
Using the measures proposed by Mink et al. (2012), we reexamine the coherence of business cycles in the euro area using a long sample period. We also analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on business cycle coherence and examine whether our measures for business cycle coherence indicate a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013168003
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The economic impact of demographic structure in OECD countries
Aksoy, Yunus; Grasl, Tobias; Smith, Ron - 2012
We examine the impact of demographic structure, the proportion of the population in each age group, on growth, savings, investment, hours, interest rates and inflation using a panel VAR estimated from data for 20 OECD economies, mainly for the period 1970-2007. This flexible dynamic structure...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009630625