Hurricanes are among the costliest natural disasters in the world, with a significant portion of their impact linked to … the US and develop a new approach for measuring the social value of forecast improvements. We find that pre …-landfall federal protective expenditures exponentially increase with the forecast wind speed and with the degree of uncertainty about …

usefulness for forecasting real oil prices and global petroleum consumption. We find that world industrial production is one of …

science and scientists. Building on the “impressionable years hypothesis” that attitudes are durably formed during the ages 18 … reduces trust in scientists and in the benefits of their work. We also illustrate that the decline in trust is driven by the …

. We provide evidence on scientists' truth-telling from two incentivized coin-tossing experiments with more than 1 …,300 scientists. Experiment I, with predominantly European and North-American scientists, shows that fewer scientists over … replicate Experiment I's effect for North-American scientists, but find the opposite for Southern European and East …

the no-change forecast. Our key finding is that substantial reductions in the mean-squared prediction error (MSPE) of … greater reductions in MSPEs are possible by constructing a pooled forecast that assigns equal weight to five of the most …