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Agents forming adaptive expectations generally make systematic mistakes. This characterization has fostered the rejection of adaptive expectations in macroeconomics. Experimental evidence, however, shows that in complex environments human subjects frequently rely on adaptive heuristics –...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012599034
alternative rules of thumb. In the model, firms must set their prices in face of aggregate demand shocks. Their payoff depends on … the level of aggregate demand, as well as on their own price and their neighbor s price. The latter assumption captures … rule that firms can easily adopt, the economy does not converge to the REE for highly autocorrelated aggregate demand …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011409938
, agents can either decide rationally according to expected utility theory or intuitively according to case-based decision … theory. Rational decisions are more precise but create higher costs, though these costs may decrease over time. We find that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010464891
This paper performs a welfare analysis of economies with private information when public information is endogenously generated and agents can condition on noisy public statistics in the rational expectations tradition. We find that equilibrium is not (restricted) efficient even when feasible...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009153832
Social interactions are considered pivotal to agglomeration economies. We explore a unique dataset on mobile phone calls to examine how distance and population density shape the structure of social interactions. Exploiting an exogenous change in travel times, we show that distance is highly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011688211
We examine the relative importance of accuracy concerns and belief confirmation motives in driving the demand for news …, left-wing biased, or unbiased way. We then measure demand for a newsletter covering articles from this outlet. Respondents … only reduce their demand for biased news if the bias is inconsistent with their own political beliefs, suggesting a trade …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013173771
Using a large-scale online experiment with more than 8,000 U.S. respondents, we examine how the demand for a politics … newsletter changes when the newsletter content is fact-checked. We first document an overall muted demand for fact-checking when …-checking reduces demand among respondents with strong ideological views and increases demand among ideologically moderate respondents …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012510167
We derive the optimal monetary policy in a sticky price model when private agents follow adaptive learning. We show that this slight departure from rationality has important implications for policy design. The central bank faces a new intertemporal trade-off, not present under rational...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003974493
We study a general static noisy rational expectations model, where investors have private information about asset payoffs, with common and private components, and about their own exposure to an aggregate risk factor, and derive conditions for existence and uniqueness (or multiplicity) of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003994517
We study compliance dynamics generated by a large set of behavioral rules describing social interaction in a population of agents facing an enforcement authority. When the authority adjusts the auditing probability every period, cycling in cheating-auditing occurs: Intensive monitoring induces...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010347038