Narrow search
Showing 1 - 10 of 3,819
Cover Image
Perceived uncertainty shocks, excess optimism-pessimism, and learning in the business cycle
Chatterjee, Pratiti; Milani, Fabio - 2020
What are the effects of beliefs, sentiment, and uncertainty, over the business cycle? To answer this question, we develop a behavioral New Keynesian macroeconomic model, in which we relax the assumption of rational expectations. Agents are, instead, boundedly rational: they have a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012294890
Cover Image
Taxation of firms with unknown mobility
Becker, Johannes; Schneider, Andrea - 2012
We analyze the optimal tax choices of a revenue-maximizing government that levies taxes from firms of which the true degree of mobility is ex ante unknown. Differential tax treatment of immobile and mobile firms is ruled out, but the government may learn from the firms' location responses to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009683252
Cover Image
Restrictions on risk prices in dynamic term structure models
Bauer, Michael D. - 2015
Restrictions on the risk-pricing in dynamic term structure models (DTSMs) can unleash the power of no-arbitrage by … econometric framework for estimation of affine Gaussian DTSMs under restrictions on risk prices, which addresses the issues of a … the US Treasury yield curve. The data strongly favor tight restrictions on risk pricing: only level risk is priced, and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010491726
Cover Image
Agreed and disagreed uncertainty
Gambetti, Luca; Korobilis, Dimitris; Tsoukalas, John D.; … - 2023
When agents' information is imperfect and dispersed, existing measures of macroeconomic uncertainty based on the forecast error variance have two distinct drivers: the variance of the economic shock and the variance of the information dispersion. The former driver increases uncertainty and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014286777
Cover Image
Shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted? : on educational risk and the quality of education
Schindler, Dirk; Weigert, Benjamin - 2011
which individuals face educational risk and wage dispersion across two types of skills. Successful graduation and working as … a skilled worker depends on individual effort in education and on public resources, but educational risk still causes … implemented. -- human capital investment ; endogenous risk ; learning effort ; optimal taxation ; public education …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009124160
Cover Image
Uncertainty, imperfect information, and expectation formation over the firm's life cycle
Chen, Cheng; Senga, Tatsuro; Sun, Chang; Zhang, Hongyong - 2020
Using a long-panel dataset of Japanese firms that contains firm-level sales forecasts, we provide evidence on firm-level uncertainty and imperfect information over their life cycle. We find that firms make non-negligible and positively correlated forecast errors. However, they make more precise...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012258487
Cover Image
Does U.S. monetary policy respond to macroeconomic uncertainty?
Gomez, Thomas; Piccillo, Giulia - 2023
We find that macroeconomic uncertainty plays a significant role in U.S. monetary policy. First, we construct a measure of uncertainty as felt by policymakers at the time of making their rate-setting decisions. This measure is derived from a real-time, Bayesian estimation of a small monetary VAR...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014265941
Cover Image
International environmental agreements with uncertainty, learning and risk aversion
Finus, Michael; Pintassilgo, Pedro; Ulph, Alistair - 2014
role of learning and risk aversion. It bridges two strands of literature: one focused on the role learning for the success … of IEA formation when countries are risk neutral and another that explores the implications of uncertainty and risk … aversion on IEA formation under no learning. Combining learning and risk aversion seems appropriate as the uncertainties …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010234539
Cover Image
Technology shocks and aggregate fluctuations in an estimated hybrid RBC model
Malley, James R.; Woitek, Ulrich - 2009
This paper contributes to the on-going empirical debate regarding the role of the RBC model and in particular of technology shocks in explaining aggregate fluctuations. To this end we estimate the model's posterior density using Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) methods. Within this framework we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003833344
Cover Image
Productivity shocks and aggregate cycles in an estimated endogenous growth model
Malley, James R.; Woitek, Ulrich - 2009
Using a two-sector endogenous growth model, this paper explores how productivity shocks in the goods and human capital producing sectors contribute to explaining aggregate cycles in output, consumption, investment and hours. To contextualize our findings, we also assess whether the human capital...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003850283