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Variable selection and forecasting in high dimensional linear regressions with structural breaks

Chudik, Alexander; Pesaran, M. Hashem; Sharifvaghefi, Mahrad - 2020

This paper is concerned with problem of variable selection and forecasting in the presence of parameter instability. There are a number of approaches proposed for forecasting in the presence of breaks, including the use of rolling windows or exponential down-weighting. However, these studies...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012258549

Forecasting nonlinear aggregates and aggregates with time-varying weights

Lütkepohl, Helmut - 2010

with simulations. Two examples based on European unemployment and inflation series are used to illustrate the virtue of the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003966437

Modelling loans to non-financial corporations within the Eurozone : a long-memory approach

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alaña, Luis A. - 2020

This paper uses fractional integration and cointegration methods to analyse the determinants of the amount of loans provided to non-financial corporations (NFCs) during the last three decades in four Eurozone countries, namely Germany, France, Italy and Spain. More specifically, ARFIMA...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012310523

Real-time state-space method for computing smoothed estimates of future revisions of U.S. monthly chained CPI

Zadrozny, Peter A. - 2016

Well known CPI of urban consumers is never revised. Recently initiated chained CPI is initially released every month (ICPI), for that month without delay within BLS and for the previous month with one month delay to the public. Final estimates of chained CPI (FCPI) are released every February...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011474973

An alternative conditional asymmetry specification for stock returns

Brännäs, Kurt; Nordman, Niklas - 2001

The paper advances the log-generalized gamma distribution as a suitable generator of conditional skewness. Based on the NYSE composite daily returns an asMA-asQGARCH model along with skewness dynamics is estimated. The results indicate a skewness that varies between sizeable negative skewness...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011398115

The role of the log transformation in forecasting economic variables

Lütkepohl, Helmut; Fang, Xu - 2009

For forecasting and economic analysis many variables are used in logarithms (logs). In time series analysis this transformation is often considered to stabilize the variance of a series. We investigate under which conditions taking logs is beneficial for forecasting. Forecasts based on the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003820020

Variable selection in high dimensional linear regressions with parameter instability

Chudik, Alexander; Pesaran, M. Hashem; Sharifvaghefi, Mahrad - 2023

establish three main theorems on selection, estimation post selection, and in-sample fit. These theorems provide justification …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013494088

Global linkages across sectors and frequency bands : a band spectral panel regression approach

Lyu, Jingjing; Süssmuth, Bernd - 2024

We introduce the technique of band spectral panel regression (BSPR) to analyze global linkages across sectors and frequency bands. It relies on decomposing time series —allowably measured in mixed observation frequency— into “deviation cycle” dynamics by frequency band. We use it to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014485646

Nonparametric regression and the detection of turning points in the Ifo business climate

Abberger, Klaus - 2004

Business climate indicators are used to receive early signals for turning points in the general business cycle. Therefore methods for the detection of turning points in time series are required. Estimations of slopes of a smooth component in the data can be calculated with local polynomial...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011450892

Testing unemployment theories : a multivariate long memory approach

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alaña, Luis A.; Lovcha, … - 2014

This paper investigates the empirical relevance of different unemployment theories in three major economies, namely the … UK, the US and Japan, by estimating the degree of dependence in the unemployment series. Both univariate and multivariate …. Specifically, when taking a univariate approach, the unit root null cannot be rejected in case of the UK and Japanese unemployment …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010229867