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Uncertainty shocks and financial crisis indicators

Hristov, Nikolay; Roth, Markus - 2019

The current paper broadens the understanding of the role played by uncertainty in the context of macroeconomic fluctuations. It focuses on the implications of uncertainty shocks for indicators that tend to precede financial crises. In an empirical analysis we show for a set of four euro area...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012103607

Yield curve and financial uncertainty : evidence based on US data

Castelnuovo, Efrem - 2019

stronger than that of the long end (i.e., of long term ones). In other words, a financial uncertainty shock causes a temporary … recovery in real activity after a financial uncertainty shock. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012029082

Identifying uncertainty shocks using the price of gold

Piffer, Michele; Podstawski, Maximilian - 2017

We propose a new instrument to identify uncertainty shocks in a SVAR model with external instruments. The instrument is constructed by exploiting variations in the price of gold around events that capture periods of changes in uncertainty. The variations in the price of gold around the events...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011602536

Identification through heterogeneity

Amir Ahmadi, Pooyan; Drautzburg, Thorsten - 2017

Set identification in Bayesian vector autoregression (VARs) is becoming increasingly popular while facing recent criticism about potentially unwanted prior dominance and underrepresented bounds of the identified set. This can lead to biased inference even in large samples. Common estimation...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011611169

Structural vector autoregressions with heteroskedasticity : a comparison of different volatility models

Lütkepohl, Helmut; Netšunajev, Aleksei - 2015

A growing literature uses changes in residual volatility for identifying structural shocks in vector autoregressive (VAR) analysis. A number of different models for heteroskedasticity or conditional heteroskedasticity are proposed and used in applications in this context. This study reviews the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010509631

Country-specific oil supply shocks and the global economy : a counterfactual analysis

Mohaddes, Kamiar; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2015

the shock. In particular, we find that adverse shocks to Iranian oil output are neutralized in terms of their effects on … contrast, a negative shock to oil supply in Saudi Arabia leads to an immediate and permanent increase in oil prices, given that … supply shock has significant adverse effects for the global economy with real GDP falling in both advanced and emerging …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010528313

Is there news in inventories?

Görtz, Christoph; Gunn, Christopher M.; Lubik, Thomas A. - 2020

We identify total factor productivity (TFP) news shocks using standard VAR methodology and document a new stylized fact: in response to news about future increases in TFP, inventories rise and comove positively with other major macroeconomic aggregates. We show that the standard theoretical...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012213178

Uncertainty across volatility regimes

Angelini, Giovanni; Bacchiocchi, Emanuele; Caggiano, … - 2017

We propose a new non-recursive identification scheme for uncertainty shocks, which exploits breaks in the unconditional volatility of macroeconomic variables. Such identification approach allows us to simultaneously address two major questions in the empirical literature on uncertainty: (i) Does...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011778668

Structural interpretation of vector autoregressions with incomplete identification : revisiting the role of oil supply and demand shocks

Baumeister, Christiane; Hamilton, James D. - 2017 - Revised December 21, 2017

Traditional approaches to structural vector autoregressions can be viewed as special cases of Bayesian inference arising from very strong prior beliefs. These methods can be generalized with a less restrictive formulation that incorporates uncertainty about the identifying assumptions...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011782040

Capital flows in the euro area and TARGET2 balances

Hristov, Nikolay; Hülsewig, Oliver; Wollmershäuser, Timo - 2018

We estimate a panel VAR model for the euro area to quantitatively asses the contribution of the TARGET2 system to the propagation of different types of structural economic shocks as well as to the historical evolution of aggregate economic activity in euro area member countries. Our results...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011793977