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Exchange rate forecasters' performance : evidence of skill?

McDonald, Ronald H.; Menkhoff, Lukas; Rebitzky, Rafael R. - 2009

This paper sheds new light on a long-standing puzzle in the international finance literature, namely, that exchange rate expectations appear inaccurate and even irrational. We find for a comprehensive dataset that individual forecasters' performance is skill-based. 'Superior' forecasters show...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003832110

Seven pitfalls of technical analysis

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Plastun, Alex - 2023

This paper examines the main drawbacks of technical analysis. Although this is widely used by practitioners, from an academic perspective it can only be seen as a form of "voodoo finance". In particular, it runs into the following pitfalls: Subjectivity; Doubtful assumptions; Unjustified...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013489574

Selective attention in exchange rate forecasting

Kapounek, Svatopluk; Kučerová, Zuzana; Kočenda, Evžen - 2021

We analyze the exchange rate forecasting performance under the assumption of selective attention. Although currency markets react to a variety of different information, we hypothesize that market participants process only a limited amount of information. Our analysis includes more than 100,000...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012433963

The predictive power of political pundits : prescient or pitiful?

Metaxas, Phillip; Leigh, Andrew - 2013

Although Australian political pundits frequently make predictions about the future, little systematic evidence exists on the accuracy of these predictions. To assess the predictive power of experts, we survey the transcripts of two well-known political programs - Insiders and Meet the Press -...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009748356

The macroeconomic projections of the German government : a comparison to an independent forecasting institution

Lehmann, Robert; Wollmershäuser, Timo - 2019

the Joint Economic Forecast, which is an in-dependent forecasting institution in Germany. Our results indicate that … nominal GDP projections are upward biased for longer forecast horizons, which seems to be driven by a false assessment of the … government also deviates from the projections of the Joint Economic Forecast, which in fact worsened the forecast accuracy …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011958832

Net foreign asset positions and appreciation expectations on the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen

Latsos, Sophia; Schnabl, Gunther - 2015

The paper shows that currencies of countries with persistent current account surpluses and high foreign-currency denominated assets, such as the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen, are under persistent appreciation pressure, particularly when the centres of the world monetary system follow...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011309557

Can time-varying currency risk hedging explain exchange rates?

Bräuer, Leonie; Hau, Harald - 2022

Over the last decade foreign bond portfolio positions in US dollar assets have risen above the reciprocal US investor positions in foreign currencies. In periods of increased economic uncertainty, institutional investors hedge their international bond positions, which creates a net hedging...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013440410

Exchange rates and sovereign risk : a nonlinear approach based on local Gaussian correlations

Heinlein, Reinhold; Legrenzi, Gabriella; Mahadeo, Scott … - 2024

We empirically assess the interlinkages between sovereign risk, measured in terms of CDS spreads, and exchange rates for a sample of emerging markets. Our period of analysis includes periods of severe stress, such as the Global Financial Crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukrainian War. Using...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014505308

Exchange rate uncertainty and international portfolio flows

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Ali, Faek Menla; Spagnolo, Nicola - 2013

This paper examines the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on different components of portfolio flows, namely equity and bond flows, as well as the dynamic linkages between exchange rate volatility and the variability of these two types of flows. Specifically, a bivariate GARCH-BEKK-in-mean...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009743845

External debt and international trade : another mismatch

Fujii, Eiji - 2015

Currency mismatch makes a debtor country suffer from domestic depreciation by magnifying the burden of its external debt. Since external debt can be paid back by exporting more than importing, a crucial channel for inducing recovery is net export. It is not warranted, however, that domestic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011343071