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Real and nominal effects of monetary shocks under time-varying disagreement
Esady, Vania - 2019
This paper investigates the heterogeneity of monetary policy transmission under time-varying disagreement regimes using a threshold VAR. Empirically, I establish that during times of high disagreement, prices respond more sluggishly in response to monetary shocks. These stickier prices cause a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012124866
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How to limit the spillover from an inflation surge to inflation expectations?
Dräger, Lena; Lamla, Michael; Pfajfar, Damjan - 2023
We study the effects of forward-looking communication in an environment of rising inflation rates on German consumers' inflation expectations using a randomized control trial. We show that information about rising inflation increases short- and long-term inflation expectations. This initial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014247283
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Did the fed surprise the markets in 2001? : a case study for VARs with sign restrictions
Uhlig, Harald - 2001
In 2001, the Fed has lowered interest rates in a series of cuts, starting from 6.5 per cent at the end of 2000 to 2.0 per cent by early November. This paper asks, whether the Federal Reserve Bank has been surprising the markets, taking as given the conventional view about the effect of monetary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011408451
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Managing households' expectations with salient economic policies
D'Acunto, Francesco; Hoang, Daniel; Weber, Michael - 2019 - This version: August 2019
The empirical effectiveness of economic policies that operate theoretically through similar channels differs substantially. We document this fact by comparing an easy-to-grasp expectations-based policy, unconventional fiscal policy, with a policy whose implications are harder to understand by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012057290
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Optimal monetary policy when agents are learning
Molnár, Krisztina; Santoro, Sergio - 2010
We derive the optimal monetary policy in a sticky price model when private agents follow adaptive learning. We show that this slight departure from rationality has important implications for policy design. The central bank faces a new intertemporal trade-off, not present under rational...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003974493
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Heterogeneous expectations, indeterminacy, and postwar US business cycles
Ilabaca, Francisco; Milani, Fabio - 2020
This paper estimates a New Keynesian model extended to include heterogeneous expectations, to revisit the evidence that postwar US macroeconomic data can be explained as the outcome of passive monetary policy, indeterminacy, and sunspot-driven fluctuations in the pre-1979 sample, with a switch...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012200338
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Heterogeneity in individual expectations, sentiment, and constant-gain learning
Cole, Stephen J.; Milani, Fabio - 2020
The adaptive learning approach has been fruitfully employed to model the formation of aggregate expectations at the macroeconomic level, as an alternative to rational expectations. This paper uses adaptive learning to understand, instead, the formation of expectations at the micro-level, by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012226634
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Subjective models of the macroeconomy : evidence from experts and a representative sample
Andre, Peter; Pizzinelli, Carlo; Roth, Christopher; … - 2019
the inflation rate respond to four different hypothetical exogenous shocks: a monetary policy shock, a government spending … shock, an income tax shock, and an oil price shock. While expert predictions are quantitatively close to benchmarks from … predictions of changes in inflation are at odds with those of experts both for the tax shock and the interest rate shock. We show …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012104048
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Monetary policy and the relative price of durable goods
Cantelmo, Alessandro; Melina, Giovanni - 2015
In a VAR model of the US, the response of the relative price of durables to a monetary contraction is either flat or mildly positive. It significantly falls only if narrowly defined as the ratio between new house and nondurables prices. These findings survive three identification strategies and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010515460
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Monetary policy, sectoral comovement and the credit channel
Di Pace, Federico; Görtz, Christoph - 2021
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012546900