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The signaling effects of fiscal announcements

Melosi, Leonardo; Morita, Hiroshi; Rogantini Picco, Anna; … - 2024

Announcing a large fiscal stimulus may signal the government’s pessimism about the severity of a recession to the private sector, impairing the stabilizing effects of the policy. Using a theoretical model, we show that these signaling effects occur when the stimulus exceeds expectations and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015052575

Dispersed information and the origins of aggregate fluctuations

Grazzini, Jakob; Massaro, Domenico - 2016

firms can observe each other's decisions, they are able to increase the accuracy of their actions. While reducing volatility … at the individual level, social learning may lead to an increase in volatility at the aggregate level depending on the … network topology. Moreover, if the network is very asymmetric, aggregate volatility does not decay as predicted by the law of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011489440

Signaling ideology through consumption

Schneider, Florian - 2022

Firms often discourage certain categories of individuals from buying their products, seemingly at odds with typical assumptions about profit maximization. This paper provides a potential rationale for such firm behavior: Consumers seek to signal that they have "desirable" ideological values to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013285514

The effects of monetary policy : theory with measured expectations

Roth, Christopher; Wiederholt, Mirko; Wohlfart, Johannes - 2023

We study the effects of monetary policy on aggregate consumption combining a heterogeneous agent model with measured expectations under different policy counterfactuals. We express the consumption of non-hand-to-mouth households as a function of expectations only and elicit all expectations...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013489702

How do expectations about the macroeconomy affect personal expectations and behavior?

Roth, Christopher; Wohlfart, Johannes - 2018

Using a representative online panel from the US, we examine how individuals' macroeconomic expectations causally affect their personal economic prospects and their behavior. To exogenously vary respondents' expectations we provide them with different professional forecasts about the likelihood...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011877783

Uncertainty and information acquisition : evidence from firms and households

Mikosch, Heiner; Roth, Christopher; Sarferaz, Samad; … - 2021

We leverage the small open economy Switzerland as a testing ground for basic premises of macroeconomic models of endogenous information acquisition, using tailored surveys of firms and households. First, we show that firms perceive a greater exposure to exchange rate movements than households,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012697102

Risk exposure and acquisition of macroeconomic information

Roth, Christopher; Settele, Sonja; Wohlfart, Johannes - 2020

We conduct an experiment with a representative sample from the US to study households’ demand for macroeconomic information. Respondents who learn of a higher personal exposure to unemployment risk during recessions increase their demand for an expert forecast about the likelihood of a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012300259

Subjective models of the macroeconomy : evidence from experts and a representative sample

Andre, Peter; Pizzinelli, Carlo; Roth, Christopher; … - 2019

We propose a method to measure people's subjective models of the macroeconomy. Using a sample of 2,200 households representative of the US population and a sample of more than 1,000 experts, we measure beliefs about how the unemployment rate and the inflation rate respond to four different...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012104048

Do consumers acquire information optimally? : experimental evidence from energy efficiency

La Nauze, Andrea; Myers, Erica - 2023

We use an experiment to test whether consumers optimally acquire information on energy costs in appliance markets where, like many contexts, consumers are poorly informed and make mistakes despite freely available information. To test for optimal information acquisition we compare the average...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014247561

A matter of taste : the negative welfare effect of expert judgments

Lagios, Nicolas; Méon, Pierre-Guillaume - 2024

We study how experts influence consumer behavior and welfare by focusing on the Booker Prize. Leveraging the discontinuity created by the attribution of the prize, we show that readers receive the signal sent by the jury of the Booker and are persuaded to buy the awarded book but experience...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015051678