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models (VAR) that allow for both structural change and indicators sampled at different frequencies. We extend the literature … by evaluating a mixed-frequency time-varying parameter VAR with stochastic volatility (MF-TVP-SV-VAR). Overall, the MFTVP …- SV-VAR delivers accurate now- and forecasts and, on average, outperforms its competitors. We assess the models’ accuracy …
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Despite the fact that many aggregates are nonlinear functions and the aggregation weights of many macroeconomic aggregates are time-varying, much of the literature on forecasting aggregates considers the case of linear aggregates with fixed, time-invariant aggregation weights. In this study a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003966437
We develop a regime switching vector autoregression where artificial neural networks drive time variation in the coefficients of the conditional mean of the endogenous variables and the variance covariance matrix of the disturbances. The model is equipped with a stability constraint to ensure...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012668293
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The paper advances the log-generalized gamma distribution as a suitable generator of conditional skewness. Based on the NYSE composite daily returns an asMA-asQGARCH model along with skewness dynamics is estimated. The results indicate a skewness that varies between sizeable negative skewness...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011398115
Reliable early warning signals are essential for timely implementation of macroeconomic and macro-prudential policies. This paper presents an early warning system as a set of multi-period forecasts of indicators of tail real and financial (systemic) risks. Forecasts are obtained from: (a)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010498601
We propose to treat survey-based density expectations as compositional data when testing either for heterogeneity in density forecasts across different groups of agents or for changes over time. Monte Carlo simulations show that the proposed test has more power relative to both a bootstrap...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013536182
Long-run restrictions have been used extensively for identifying structural shocks in vector autoregressive (VAR … for checking long-run identifying restrictions in structural VAR analysis is illustrated by reconsidering models for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010249640