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Beyond borders : assessing the influence of geopolitical tensions on sovereign risk dynamics
Afonso, António; Alves, José; Monteiro, Sofia - 2023
We assess the impact of geopolitical risk and world uncertainty on the sovereign debt risk of 26 European Economies … European country's sovereign risk as measured by 5- and 10-year Credit Default Swaps (CDS) and bond returns. Moreover, this …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014442414
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Explosive oil prices
Gronwald, Marc - 2013
This paper deals with three aspects of spectacular oil price episodes such as the one witnessed in 2008. First, the concept of temporary explosiveness is proposed as an empirical method for capturing this type of behavior. The application of a recently proposed recursive unit root test shows...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009786017
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Economic knock-on effects of Russia's geopolitical risk on advanced economies : a global VAR approach
Blagov, Boris; Dirks, Maximilian W.; Funke, Michael - 2024
risk shocks propagate across advanced economies and quantify the economic effects of these events. The global VAR impulse … response functions in response to the skyrocketing Russian geo-political risk shock after Russia's invasion of Ukraine revealed … the Russian geopolitical risk shock. We also document a strong component of the Russian geopolitical risk shock that is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014452016
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The asymmetric impact of economic policy and oil price uncertainty on inflation : evidence from developed and emerging economies
Anderl, Christina; Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2023
This paper examines the asymmetric impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and oil price uncertainty (OPU) on inflation by using a Nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) model, which is compared to a benchmark linear ARDL one. Using monthly data from the 1990s until August 2022 for a number of developed and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013543029
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Oil prices and the global economy : is it different this time around?
Mohaddes, Kamiar; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2016
The recent plunge in oil prices has brought into question the generally accepted view that lower oil prices are good for the US and the global economy. In this paper, using a quarterly multi-country econometric model, we first show that a fall in oil prices tends relatively quickly to lower...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011502542
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The interplay between oil and food commodity prices : has it changed over time?
Peersman, Gert; Rüth, Sebastian; Van der Veken, Wouter - 2019
Using time-varying BVARs, we find that oil price increases caused by oil supply shocks did not affect food commodity prices before the start of the millennium, but had positive spillover effects in more recent periods. Likewise, shortfalls in global food commodity supply - resulting from bad...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012064355
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Country-specific oil supply shocks and the global economy : a counterfactual analysis
Mohaddes, Kamiar; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2015
This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of country-specific oil-supply shocks. Our contribution is both theoretical and empirical. On the theoretical side, we develop a model for the global oil market and integrate this within a compact quarterly model of the global economy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010528313
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The green paradox : a supply-side view of the climate problem
Sinn, Hans-Werner - 2015
Why have policies aimed at reducing the demand for carbon not succeeded in slowing down global carbon extraction and CO2 emissions, and why have carbon prices failed to increase over the last three decades? This comment argues that this is because of the Green Paradox, i.e. - (the anticipation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010528868
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Oil prices, exchange rates and sectoral stock returns in the BRICS-T countries : a time-varying approach
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Catik, A. Nazif; Kışla, … - 2021
Africa; no effect on the transportation sector of Brazil, China, and South Africa, a negative one on those of India and … implies that appropriate energy policies should be adopted to reduce risk. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012625861
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The political costs of oil price shocks
Arezki, Rabah; Djankov, Simeon; Nguyen, Ha; Yotzov, Ivan - 2022
We explore the effect of oil import price shocks on political outcomes using a worldwide dataset on elections of chief executives. Oil import price shocks cause a reduction in the odds of reelection of incumbents, an increase in media chatter about fuel prices, and an increase in non-violent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013205030