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What are the effects of beliefs, sentiment, and uncertainty, over the business cycle? To answer this question, we develop a behavioral New Keynesian macroeconomic model, in which we relax the assumption of rational expectations. Agents are, instead, boundedly rational: they have a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012294890
When agents' information is imperfect and dispersed, existing measures of macroeconomic uncertainty based on the forecast error variance have two distinct drivers: the variance of the economic shock and the variance of the information dispersion. The former driver increases uncertainty and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014286777
In this paper we offer an analysis of the effects of uncertainty about future tax policy on irreversible investment …. The main message of the paper is that investment is not much affected by the degreee of tax policy uncertainty. This is … that reducing tax policy uncertainty is probably no magic bullet to increase private investment spending …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009781588
similar investment subsidies were implemented in the same country, two years apart: once during a period of economic stability … offer an important policy opportunity to encourage investment. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012120240
affiliation of the future governor is a source of political risk to firms considering business investment. More importantly, the …We estimate the effect of electorally induced policy uncertainty on investment in the manufacturing sector. Because …, and because the policies relevant to business investment vary systematically by party, uncertainty over the partisan …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011451061
degree of pessimism of the representative agent is the mean of the individual ones weighted by their index of absolute risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011507677
or 1.5oC. The safe carbon budget is lower if uncertainty about the transient climate response is high and risk tolerance …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011717248
Bayesian Updating is the dominant theory of learning in economics. The theory is silent about how individuals react to events that were previously unforeseeable or unforeseen. Recent theoretical literature has put forth axiomatic frameworks to analyze the unknown. In particular, we test if...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012307444
consequences. Although risk preferences are likely important, existing research is silent about how social and risk preferences … not exposed to risk while beneficiaries' final earnings may be larger or smaller than the allocation itself, depending on … the realized state of the world. In a second experiment, risk affects the earnings of givers but not of beneficiaries. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011565561
-correlated returns. Any such project stabilizes the aggregate proceeds. Therefore, given widespread risk exposure and aversion, that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011401340