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Monetary policy and asset price overshooting: a rationale for the Wall/Main Street disconnect
Caballero, Ricardo J.; Simsek, Alp - 2022
We analyze optimal monetary policy and its implications for asset prices, when aggregate demand has inertia and responds to asset prices with a lag. If there is a negative output gap, the central bank optimally overshoots aggregate asset prices (asset prices are initially pushed above their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013093040
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Monetary policy interactions : the policy rate, asset purchases, and optimal policy with an interest rate Peg
Gödl-Hanisch, Isabel; Mau, Ronald; Rawls, Jonathan - 2023
We study monetary policy in a New Keynesian model with a variable credit spread and scope for central bank asset purchases to matter. A novel financial and labor market interaction generates an endogenous cost-push channel in the Phillips curve and a credit wedge in the IS curve. The "divine...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014252576
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Quantitative or qualitative forward guidance : does it matter?
Detmers, Gunda-Alexandra; Karagedikli, Özer; Moessner, … - 2018
Every monetary policy decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is accompanied by a written statement about the state of the economy and the policy outlook, but only every second decision by a published interest rate forecast. We exploit this difference to study the relative influences...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011926064
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Interest rate skewness and biased beliefs
Bauer, Michael D.; Chernov, Mikhail - 2021 - First draft: January 2021, this draft: June 16, 2021
Conditional yield skewness is an important summary statistic of the state of the economy. It exhibits pronounced variation over the business cycle and with the stance of monetary policy, and a tight relationship with the slope of the yield curve. Most importantly, variation in yield skewness has...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012547050
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Have macroeconomic models lost their connection with economic reality?
Veen, Tom van - 2020
Macroeconomic theory has developed into increasingly sophisticated mathematical models. In the words of Mankiw … the development of macroeconomic theory over the past 40 years. The focus is on the main lines of thinking and the story … changes in macroeconomic theory and that the current debates after the GFC will be the start of a more plural approach to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012211109
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Reasons for the demise of interest : savings glut and secular stagnation or central bank policy?
Mayer, Thomas; Schnabl, Gunther - 2019
, from the perspective of Austrian business cycle theory, interest rates were step by step decreased by central banks to … nihilo and the need of time to produce capital invalidates the IS identity assumed in the Keynesian theory to hold …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012124862
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Multilateral loans and interest rates : further evidence on the seniority conundrum
Steinkamp, Sven; Westermann, Frank - 2016
During Europe's sovereign-debt crisis, interest rate spreads have been highly correlated with the share of multilateral loans that were considered senior to private markets. As both variables are potentially endogenous, we follow two different approaches to analyze the direction of causality....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011569629
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Missing events in event studies : identifying the effects of partially-measured news surprises
Gürkaynak, Refet S.; Kısacıkoğlu, Burçin; Wright, … - 2018
Macroeconomic news announcements are elaborate and multi-dimensional. We consider a framework in which jumps in asset prices around macroeconomic news and monetary policy announcements reflect both the response to observed surprises in headline numbers and latent factors, reflecting other...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011900777
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Non-linearities and persistence in US long-run interest rates
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alaña, Luis A.; … - 2020
This note examines the stochastic behaviour of US monthly 10-year government bond yields. Specifically, it estimates a fractional integration model suitable to capture both persistence and non-linearities, these being two important properties of interest rates. Two series are analysed, one from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012383724
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Interest rate spillovers from the United States : expectations, term premia and macro-financial vulnerabilities
Mehrotra, Aaron N.; Moessner, Richhild; Shu, Chang - 2019
We analyse how movements in the components of sovereign bond yields in the United States affect long-term rates in 10 advanced and 21 emerging economies. The paper documents significant global spillovers from both the expectations and term premia components of longterm rates in the United...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012119811