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Human decision-making differs due to variation in both incentives and available information. This generates substantial … challenges for the evaluation of whether and how machine learning predictions can improve decision outcomes. We propose a … decision maker payoff functions and predictive skill. We apply our framework to the major health policy problem of improving …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012315943
We designed four observational learning experiments to identify the key channels that, along with Bayes-rational inferences, drive herd behavior. In Experiment 1, unobserved, whose actions remain private, learn from the public actions made in turn by subjects endowed with private signals of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011789104
Algorithm-based decision support systems play an increasingly important role in decisions involving exploration tasks … rather than exploitation, and model the participants' decision-making processes using a learning model comparable to the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013482224
We empirically assess whether hindsight bias has consequences on how citizens evaluate their political actors. Using an incentivized elicitation technique, we demonstrate that people systematically misremember their past policy preferences regarding how to best fight the Covid-19 pandemic. At...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013205089
decision-making in the context of initial play in two-player matrix games, analyzing over 90,000 human decisions across more …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015051641
This paper sheds new light on the role of communication for cartel formation. Using machine learning to evaluate free-form chat communication among firms in a laboratory experiment, we identify typical communication patterns for both explicit cartel formation and indirect attempts to collude...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013418834
We examine the profitability of personalized pricing policies that are derived using different specifications of demand in a typical retail setting with consumer-level panel data. We generate pricing policies from a variety of models, including Bayesian hierarchical choice models, regularized...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012692296
We study the effect of spatial inequality on economic activity. Given that the relationship is highly simultaneous in nature, we use exogenous variation in geographic features to construct an instrument for spatial inequality, which is independent from any man-made factors. Inequality measures...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011983689
We postulate a nonlinear DSGE model with a financial sector and heterogeneous households. In our model, the interaction between the supply of bonds by the financial sector and the precautionary demand for bonds by households produces significant endogenous aggregate risk. This risk induces an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012260513
In the long run, we are all dead. Nonetheless, when studying the short-run dynamics of economic models, it is crucial to consider boundary conditions that govern long-run, forward-looking behavior, such as transversality conditions. We demonstrate that machine learning (ML) can automatically...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015050745