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Changing electricity markets : quantifying the price effects of greening the energy matrix

Kohlscheen, Emanuel; Moessner, Richhild - 2022 - Original Version: June 2022, this version: July 2022

We analyse the drivers of European Power Exchange (EPEX) retail electricity prices between 2012 and early 2022 using machine learning. The agnostic random forest approach that we use is able to reduce in-sample root mean square errors (RMSEs) by around 50% when compared to a standard linear...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013262773

Measuring uncertainty of a combined forecast and some tests for forecaster heterogeneity

Lahiri, Kajal; Peng, Huaming; Sheng, Xuguang - 2015

We have argued that from the standpoint of a policy maker, the uncertainty of using the average forecast is not the … that the uncertainty of the average forecast can be expressed as the disagreement among the forecasters plus the volatility … the conceptually correct benchmark forecast uncertainty. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011305389

Forecasting random walks under drift instability

Pesaran, M. Hashem (contributor); Pick, Andreas (contributor) - 2008

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003711763

Measuring uncertainty of a combined forecast and some tests for forecaster heterogeneity

Lahiri, Kajal; Peng, Huaming; Sheng, Xuguang - 2020

uncertainty of a combined forecast should be interpreted as that of a typical forecaster randomly drawn from the pool. With a … some previously used measures significantly underestimate the conceptually correct benchmark forecast uncertainty. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012405456

Predictability of bull and bear markets : a new look at forecasting stock market regimes (and returns) in the US

Haase, Felix; Neuenkirch, Matthias - 2021

-switching models, and forecast combination to predict the dynamics in the S&P 500. First, we aggregate the weekly information of 115 …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012416151

Seven pitfalls of technical analysis

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Plastun, Alex - 2023

This paper examines the main drawbacks of technical analysis. Although this is widely used by practitioners, from an academic perspective it can only be seen as a form of "voodoo finance". In particular, it runs into the following pitfalls: Subjectivity; Doubtful assumptions; Unjustified...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013489574

Beyond the business climate : regular and supplementary questions in the ifo Business survey

Demmelhuber, Katrin; Sauer, Stefan; Wohlrabe, Klaus - 2022

In the monthly ifo Business Survey around 9,000 German companies answer questions about their current business situation, expectations and plans for the near future as well as on other business variables. This paper provides an overview of all regular questions (monthly, quarterly, bi-annually,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013170991