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This paper analyzes the effects of several policy instruments to mitigate financial bubbles generated in the banking … policy instruments in counteracting financial bubbles. We find that an endogenous capital requirement reduces the impact of a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011952012
Using a battery of timely multivariate time series techniques I study the Bitcoin cryptocurrency price series and web search queries with regard to their mutual predictability, Granger-causality and cause-effect delay structure. The Bitcoin is at first treated as a general currency, then as a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012026340
that SPC in general might be a useful tool in constructing early warning systems for asset price bubbles. -- statistical … process control ; real estate ; asset prices bubbles ; early warning systems …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009631674
profitability of banks’ portfolios affect their ability to cover for any liquidity shortage and hence influence the premium they … require to carry maturity risk. During a boom, profitability is increasing and thus spreads are low, while during a recession … profitability is decreasing and spreads are high, in accordance with the cyclical properties of term spreads in the data. Second, we …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009682825
optimal dynamic control problem is characterized by two stochastic state variables: the equity value, and profitability (ROA …) of the _rm. According to the empirical evidence, we let profitability follow a mean reverting process. The problem is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012668498
The cyclicality of real wages has important implications for the validity of competing business cycle theories. However, the empirical evidence on the aggregate level is inconclusive. Using a threshold vector autoregressive model for the US and Germany to condition the relationship between real...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011449261
This paper conducts a broad-based comparison of iterated and direct multi-step forecasting approaches applied to both univariate and multivariate models. Theoretical results and Monte Carlo simulations suggest that iterated forecasts dominate direct forecasts when estimation error is a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003807908
Consumption risk sharing among U.S. federal states increases in booms and decreases in recessions. We find that small firms' access to credit markets plays an important role in explaining this stylized fact: business cycle fluctuations in aggregate risk sharing are more pronounced in states in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003807913
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003496720
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003497650