Showing 101 - 110 of 1,891
Do survey data on inflation expectations contain useful information for estimating macroeconomic models? I address this … restriction and helps to determine the forecasting model for inflation that agents use under learning. My results reveal that the … inflation expectations. -- survey data ; learning models ; inflation expectations ; Bayesian econometrics …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009272363
In 2001, the Fed has lowered interest rates in a series of cuts, starting from 6.5 per cent at the end of 2000 to 2.0 per cent by early November. This paper asks, whether the Federal Reserve Bank has been surprising the markets, taking as given the conventional view about the effect of monetary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011408451
" - suggests that a shift in expected inflation lowered real interest rates and stimulated consumption and investment. However, few … studies have measured, or tested the economic consequences of, inflation expectations. In this paper, we collect high …-frequency information from primary and secondary sources to measure expected inflation in the United Kingdom between the wars. A VAR model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012669620
Macroeconomic uncertainty affects the subjective distribution of individual expectations. Using four panel datasets, we document the effects of macro uncertainty on the mean expectation (first moment) and subjective uncertainty (second moment) of income forecasts. We find that macro uncertainty...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012745240
We exploit the unexpected announcement of an immediate, temporary VAT cut in Germany in the second half of 2020 as a natural experiment to study the spending response to unconventional fiscal policy. We use survey and scanner data on households' consumption expenditures and their perceived...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012668478
We provide survey evidence on how households’ inflation expectations matter for their spending highlighting a … stable prices consume less durable goods than those expecting positive inflation. In contrast, differences across households … expecting positive inflation are associated with insignificant differences in durable consumption decisions. That distortion …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012499658
their heterogeneity. We exploit survey data on output and inflation expectations by individual professional forecasters. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012226634
consumption via managing inflation expectations based on the Euler equation. Unconventional fiscal policy uses trivial … announcements of future consumer-price increases to boost inflation expectations and consumption expenditure on impact. Instead … inflation expectations and spending today. We find households' inflation expectations and readiness to spend react substantially …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012057290
This paper investigates the heterogeneity of monetary policy transmission under time-varying disagreement regimes using a threshold VAR. Empirically, I establish that during times of high disagreement, prices respond more sluggishly in response to monetary shocks. These stickier prices cause a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012124866
This paper estimates a New Keynesian model extended to include heterogeneous expectations, to revisit the evidence that postwar US macroeconomic data can be explained as the outcome of passive monetary policy, indeterminacy, and sunspot-driven fluctuations in the pre-1979 sample, with a switch...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012200338