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Dissonance minimization and conversation in social networks

Anufriev, Mikhail; Borissov, Kirill; Pakhnin, Mikhail - 2021

We study a model of social learning in networks where the dynamics of beliefs are driven by conversations of dissonance-minimizing agents. Given their current beliefs, agents make statements, tune them to the statements of their associates, and then revise their beliefs. We characterize the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012669809

Econometric issues in the analysis of contagion

Pesaran, M. Hashem; Pick, Andreas - 2004

This paper presents a canonical, econometric model of contagion and investigates the conditions under which contagion … the solution is not unique, and for sufficiently large values of the contagion coefficients it has interesting bifurcation … contagion effects in the presence of inter-dependencies the equations for the individual markets or countries must contain …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011402451

Protectionism and economic growth : causal evidence from the first era of globalization

Potrafke, Niklas; Ruthardt, Fabian; Wüthrich, Kaspar - 2020

We investigate how protectionist policies influence economic growth. Our empirical strategy exploits an extraordinary tax scandal that gave rise to an unexpected change of government in Sweden. A free-trade majority in parliament was overturned by a protectionist majority in 1887. We employ the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012387616

The global economic impact of politicians : evidence from an international survey RCT

Boumans, Dorine; Gründler, Klaus; Potrafke, Niklas; … - 2021

We use the US presidential election on 3 November 2020 to examine how the US president influences economic expectations of international experts. We design a large-scale RCT among 843 experts working in 107 countries, asking about their expectations regarding GDP growth, unemployment, inflation,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012417461

Demand estimation using managerial responses to automated price recommendations

García, Daniel; Tolvanen, Juha; Wagner, Alexander K. - 2021

We provide a new framework to identify demand elasticities in markets where managers rely on algorithmic recommendations for price setting, and apply it to a dataset containing bookings for a sample of mid-sized hotels in Europe. Using non-binding algorithmic price recommendations and observed...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012534709

Identification of causal mechanisms based on between-subject double randomization designs

Wunsch, Conny; Strobl, Renate - 2018

Understanding the mechanisms through which treatment effects come about is crucial for designing effective interventions. The identification of such causal mechanisms is challenging and typically requires strong assumptions. This paper discusses identification and estimation of natural direct...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011872941

Political leaders and macroeconomic expectations : evidence from a global survey experiment

Boumans, Dorine; Gründler, Klaus; Potrafke, Niklas; … - 2022

Can one single political leader influence macroeconomic expectations on a global scale? We design a large-scale survey experiment among influential economic experts working in more than 100 countries and use the 2020 US presidential election as a quasi-natural experiment to identify the effect...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013383634

Selection and parallel trends

Ghanem, Dalia; Sant'Anna, Pedro H. C.; Wüthrich, Kaspar - 2022

One of the perceived advantages of difference-in-differences (DiD) methods is that they do not explicitly restrict how units select into treatment. However, when justifying DiD, researchers often argue that the treatment is "quasi-randomly" assigned. We investigate what selection mechanisms are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013362377

Causal claims in economics

Garg, Prashant; Fetzer, Thiemo - 2024

We analyze over 44,000 economics working papers from 1980–2023 using a custom language model to construct knowledge graphs mapping economic concepts and their relationships, distinguishing between general claims and those supported by causal inference methods. The share of causal claims within...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015101909

Cultural remittances and modern fertility

Melki, Mickael; Rapoport, Hillel; Spolaore, Enrico; … - 2024

We argue that migrants played a significant role in the diffusion of the demographic transition from France to the rest of Europe in the late 19th century. Employing novel data on French immigration from other European regions from 1850 to 1930, we find that higher immigration to France...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015070203