Showing 1 - 10 of 3,716
Algorithm-based decision support systems play an increasingly important role in decisions involving exploration tasks … rather than exploitation, and model the participants' decision-making processes using a learning model comparable to the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013482224
We postulate a nonlinear DSGE model with a financial sector and heterogeneous households. In our model, the interaction between the supply of bonds by the financial sector and the precautionary demand for bonds by households produces significant endogenous aggregate risk. This risk induces an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012260513
Human decision-making differs due to variation in both incentives and available information. This generates substantial … challenges for the evaluation of whether and how machine learning predictions can improve decision outcomes. We propose a … decision maker payoff functions and predictive skill. We apply our framework to the major health policy problem of improving …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012315943
This paper conducts a broad-based comparison of iterated and direct multi-step forecasting approaches applied to both univariate and multivariate models. Theoretical results and Monte Carlo simulations suggest that iterated forecasts dominate direct forecasts when estimation error is a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003807908
We develop a non-linear forecast combination rule based on copulas that incorporate the dynamic interaction between individual predictors. This approach is optimal in the sense that the resulting combined forecast produces the highest discriminatory power as measured by the receiver operating...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010475341
We develop an algorithm for solving a large class of nonlinear high-dimensional continuous-time models in finance. We approximate value and policy functions using deep learning and show that a combination of automatic differentiation and Ito's lemma allows for the computation of exact...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014464166
decision trees and logistic regressions. For this purpose, multilayer perceptrons are trained on the same data as in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012622475
to what a traditional rational optimizing agent would choose. This model is a first step to understand decision-making in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010192076
We develop a regime switching vector autoregression where artificial neural networks drive time variation in the coefficients of the conditional mean of the endogenous variables and the variance covariance matrix of the disturbances. The model is equipped with a stability constraint to ensure...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012668293
Using a unique dataset of 22.5 million news articles from the Dow Jones Newswires Archive, we perform an in depth real-time out-of-sample forecasting comparison study with one of the most widely used data sets in the newer forecasting literature, namely the FRED-MD dataset. Focusing on U.S. GDP,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012304069