Showing 1 - 10 of 16
We test a simple model of exchange rate regime choice with data for non-OECD countries covering the period 1980-94. We find the variance of output at home and in potential target countries as well as the correlation between home and foreign real activity are powerful and robust predictors of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001473991
Factor price equality across countries is an important implication of the Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson model of international trade. Although an influential theoretical result, the model has received surprisingly little empirical support. Burgman and Geppert (1993) argue that this might be due to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001597644
This paper examines the impact of product market competition and corporate governance on the cost of debt financing and the use of bond covenants. We find that more antitakeover provisions are associated with a lower cost of debt only in competitive industries. Because they are exposed to higher...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010238953
The U.S. Energy Information Administration regularly publishes short-term forecasts of the price of crude oil. Traditionally, such out-of-sample forecasts have been largely judgmental, making them difficult to replicate and justify, and not particularly successful when compared with naive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009783104
Forecasts of the quarterly real price of oil are routinely used by international organizations and central banks worldwide in assessing the global and domestic economic outlook, yet little is known about how best to generate such forecasts. Our analysis breaks new ground in several dimensions....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009746576
Futures markets are a potentially valuable source of information about price expectations. Exploiting this information has proved difficult in practice, because time-varying risk premia often render the futures price a poor measure of the market expectation of the price of the underlying asset....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011452269
Notwithstanding a resurgence in research on out-of-sample forecasts of the price of oil in recent years, there is one important approach to forecasting the real price of oil which has not been studied systematically to date. This approach is based on the premise that demand for crude oil derives...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009781115
We test weather, in addition to economic conditions, IMF credit is influenced by political factors. On the basis of a panel model for 128 countries over the period 1972-1998, we find that dept service scaled to exports, international reserve holdings scaled to imports and economic growth, as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001664920
This paper investigates the determinants of corporate risk taking. Shareholders with substantial equity ownership in a single company may advocate conservative investment policies due to greater exposure to firm risk. Using a large cross-country sample, I find a positive relationship between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003933396
There has been a systematic increase in the volatility of the real price of crude oil since 1986, followed by a decline in the volatility of oil production since the early 1990s. We explore reasons for this evolution. We show that a likely explanation of this empirical fact is that both the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009382056