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Real wages and business cycle asymmetries : presented at CESifo conference "Academic Use of ifo Survey Data", december 2003

Woitek, Ulrich - 2004

and Germany to condition the relationship between real wages and business fluctuations on the phase of the cycle, it is … demonstrated that the inconclusive evidence is not only caused by measurement problems, estimation method and composition bias as … general, the evidence for countercyclical wages is stronger in Germany than for the US, but taken together there is no clear …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002104675

Unobserved components models for quarterly German GDP

Flaig, Gebhard - 2002

In this paper, an Unobserved Components Model is employed to decompose German real GDP into the trend, cycle and seasonal components and the working day effect. The most important findings are: 1) The growth rate of potential output declined from 4.2 per cent in the sixties to 1.4 per cent at...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001653716

Estimating the output gap using business survey data : a bivariate structural time series model for the German economy

Flaig, Gebhard; Plötscher, Claudia - 2000

This paper deals with the estimation of the output gap. We use uni- and bivariate unobserved components models in order … ifo business assessment variable as an indicator for the cycle the estimation of the output gap is much more precise and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001452302

Sectoral trends and cycles in Germany

Cheung, Yin-Wong; Westermann, Frank - 2001

We examine the comovements between the output indexes of three German sectors (manufacturing, mining, and agriculture) and the three corresponding sectoral stock market indexes. It is found that data with and without seasonal adjustment give mixed results on the long-run interaction between the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001597629

Housing market dynamics : on the contribution of income shocks and credit constraints

Ortalo-Magné, François - 2001

This paper presents a dynamic theory of housing market fluctuations. It develops a life-cycle model where households are heteroeneous with respect to income and preferences and mortgage lending is restricted by a down-payment requirement. The market interaction of young credit-constrained...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014460994

Dusting off the perception of risk and returns in FOREX markets

Cumperayot, Phornchanok J. - 2003

In this paper, we construct alternative theoretical models for exchange rates by introducing additional risk factors, based on the volatility of macroeconomic fundamentals. The modified flexible-price monetary model is used to characterize the long-run equilibrium of exchange rates, while the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001753599

Monetary and fiscal policy interactions over the cycle : some empirical evidence

Muscatelli, V. Anton; Tirelli, Patrizio; Trecroci, Carmine - 2002

This paper estimates VAR models to examine the response of monetary and fiscal policy to macroeconomic targets, and the interdependence between the two policy instruments. The models are estimated for a number of G7 countries. Our findings show that, whilst monetary and fiscal policy are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001728786

Venture cycles : theory and evidence

Gehrig, Thomas; Stenbacka, Rune - 2003

We demonstrate how endogenous information acquisition in venture capital markets creates investment cycles when competing financiers undertake their screening decisions in an uncoordinated way, thereby highlighting the role of intertemporal screening externalities induced by competition among...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001739590

Exchange rate regimes and macroeconomic stability in Central and Eastern Europe

De Grauwe, Paul; Schnabl, Gunther - 2004

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002058381

Testing for common cyclical features in VAR models with cointegration

Hecq, Alain W. J.; Palm, Franz C.; Urbain, Jean-Pierre - 2001

We consider VAR models for variables exhibiting cointegration and comon cyclical features. While the presence of cointegration reduces the rank of the long-run multiplier matrix, other types of common features lead to rank reduction of the short-run dynamics. We distinguish between strong and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001590471