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Crump, Richard K. - 2020

We estimate the elasticity of intertemporal substitution (EIS)—the response of expected consumption growth to changes …). This unique data set allows us to estimate the consumption Euler equation with no auxiliary assumptions on the properties … with the results of much of the literature. In addition, planned consumption displays excess sensitivity to expected income …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012856136

Imperfect knowledge, inflation expectations, and monetary policy

Orphanides, Athanasios; Williams, John C. - 2003

This paper investigates the role that imperfect knowledge about the structure of the economy plays in the formation of expectations, macroeconomic dynamics, and the efficient formulation of monetary policy. Economic agents rely on an adaptive learning technology to form expectations and to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010298276

The decline of activist stabilization policy: Natural rate misperceptions, learning, and expectations

Orphanides, Athanasios; Williams, John C. - 2004

We develop an estimated model of the U.S. economy in which agents form expectations by continually updating their beliefs regarding the behavior of the economy and monetary policy. We explore the effects of policymakers' misperceptions of the natural rate of unemployment during the late 1960s...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010298293

Inflation band targeting and optimal inflation contracts

Mishkin, Frederic S.; Westelius, Niklas J. - In: Journal of money, credit and banking : JMCB 40 (2008) 4, pp. 557-582

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003714478

Globalization, macroeconomic performance, and monetary policy

Mishkin, Frederic S. - In: Journal of money, credit and banking : JMCB 41 (2009), pp. 187-196

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003807835

Have we underestimated the likelihood and severity of zero lower bound events?

Hess, Chung; Laforte, Jean-Philippe; Reifschneider, … - In: Journal of money, credit and banking : JMCB 44 (2012), pp. 47-82

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009574677

Three lessons for monetary policy in a low-inflation era

Reifschneider, David Leon; Williams, John C. - In: Journal of money, credit and banking : JMCB 32 (2000) 4,2, pp. 936-966

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001537696

Monetary Policy Frameworks and the Effective Lower Bound on Interest Rates

Mertens, Thomas M. - 2019

This paper applies a standard New Keynesian model to analyze the effects of monetary policy in the presence of a low natural rate of interest and a lower bound on interest rates. Under a standard inflation-targeting approach, inflation expectations will be anchored at a level below the inflation...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012867264

Tying Down the Anchor : Monetary Policy Rules and the Lower Bound on Interest Rates

Mertens, Thomas M. - 2019

This paper uses a standard New Keynesian model to analyze the effects and implementation of various monetary policy frameworks in the presence of a low natural rate of interest and a lower bound on interest rates. Under a standard inflation-targeting approach, inflation expectations will be...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012871223

What to Expect From the Lower Bound on Interest Rates : Evidence from Derivatives Prices

Mertens, Thomas M. - 2020

This paper analyzes the effects of the lower bound for interest rates on the distributions of inflation and interest rates. We study a stylized New Keynesian model where the policy instrument is subject to a lower bound to motivate the empirical analysis. Two equilibria emerge: In the “target...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012851471