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The diversity of forecasts from macroeconomic models of the U.S. economy
Wieland, Volker; Wolters, Maik - 2010
This paper investigates the accuracy and heterogeneity of output growth and inflation forecasts during the current and the four preceding NBER-dated U.S. recessions. We generate forecasts from six different models of the U.S. economy and compare them to professional forecasts from the Federal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003973758
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Bank bonds : size, systemic relevance and the sovereign
Zaghini, Andrea - 2014
We analyze the risk premium on bank bonds at origination with a special focus on the role of implicit and explicit public guarantees and the systemic relevance of the issuing institutions. By looking at the asset swap spread on 5,500 bonds, we find that explicit guarantees and sovereign...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010343421
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Does lowering dividend tax rates increase dividends repatriated?: evidence of intra-firm cross-border dividend repatriation policies by German Multinational Enterprises
Leibrecht, Markus; Bellak, Christian; Wild, Michael - 2009
This paper explores the impact dividend taxes exert on the dividends repatriated from foreign affiliates to their German parent company. Based on an augmented Lintner model of firms' dividend payout decisions, the paper focusses on cross-border intra-firm dividend payments of wholly-owned...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010298835
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Core inflation rates: a comparison of methods based on west German data
Landau, Bettina - 2000
) Germany. In addition, the different methods are examined critically from a theoretical perspective, focusing on two types of …Die vorliegende Studie präsentiert einen Vergleich zwischen verschiedenen Methoden für die Kalkulation der … Analyse von Daten für den Preisindex für die Lebenshaltung für (West-)Deutschland. Daneben werden die Methoden aus …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295692
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Going multinational: What are the effects on home market performance?
Jäckle, Robert - 2006
A number of recent studies nd evidence for the existence of a persistent performance gap between multinational enterprises (MNE) and their domestic competitors. Therefore, the question arises whether successful rms become MNEs or whether going abroad improves home market performance. This paper...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295791
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Exports versus FDI in German manufacturing: firm performance and participation in international markets
Arnold, Jens Matthias; Hussinger, Katrin - 2006
This paper tests some of the predictions of recent advances in trade theory that have focused on different trade patterns of firms within the same sector. Helpman, Melitz and Yeaple (2005) develop a model in which innate productivity differences between firms determine the degree of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295792
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Evaluating Density Forecasts with an Application to Stock Market Returns
Raunig, Burkhard; de Raaij, Gabriela - 2002
Density forecasts have become quite important in economics and finance. For example, such forecasts play a central role in modern financial risk management techniques like Value at Risk. This paper suggests a regression based density forecast evaluation framework as a simple alternative to other...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295725
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Risks and returns to education over time
Brown, Jeffrey R.; Fang, Chichun; Gomes, Francisco J. - 2015
We model education as an investment in human capital that, like other investments, is appropriately evaluated in a framework that accounts for risk as well as return. In contrast to dominant wage-premia approach to calculating the returns to education, but which implicitly ignores risk, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011336533
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The Inventory Cycle of the German Economy
Knetsch, Thomas A. - 2004
analyze recent stockbuilding trends in Germany, we propose a composite index aggregating information drawn from monthly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295636
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Evaluating the German Inventory Cycle Using Data from the Ifo Business Survey
Knetsch, Thomas A. - 2004
Inventory fluctuations are an important phenomenon in business cycles. However, the preliminary data on inventory investment as published in the German national accounts are tremendously prone to revision and therefore ill-equipped to diagnose the current stance of the inventory cycle. The Ifo...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295637