Showing 1 - 10 of 12
The paper introduces 'system priors', their use in Bayesian analysis of econometric time series, and provides a simple and illustrative application. System priors were devised by Andrle and Benes (2013) as a tool to incorporate prior knowledge into an economic model. Unlike priors about...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012966549
and that alternative estimation methods are not required in typical applications. Finally, we demonstrate that the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012661969
A series of recent articles has called into question the validity of VAR models of the global market for crude oil. These studies seek to replace existing oil market models by structural VAR models of their own based on different data, different identifying assumptions, and a different...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012665499
Using a novel dataset, we develop a structural model of the Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) market between the Arabian Gulf and the Far East. We study how fluctuations in oil tanker rates, oil exports, shipowner profits, and bunker fuel prices are determined by shocks to the supply and demand...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012395168
risk aversion and that decisions are insensitive (robust) to the precise assignment of prior probabilities. This holds …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009765345
effectiveness may moderate in graying societies. It then uses Bayesian estimation techniques for the U.S., Canada, Japan, U.K., and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013075540
We propose a method for solving and estimating linear rational expectations models that exhibit indeterminacy and we provide step-by-step guidelines for implementing this method in the Matlab-based packages Dynare and Gensys. Our method redefines a subset of expectational errors as new...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013073782
functions. We also derive joint credible regions for vectors of impulse responses as the lowest posterior risk region under the … not a valid measure of the estimation uncertainty about the impulse response vector because they ignore the mutual … dependence of the responses. In practice, they tend to understate substantially the estimation uncertainty about the impulse …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012395183
The predictive likelihood is of particular relevance in a Bayesian setting when the purpose is to rank models in a forecast comparison exercise. This paper discusses how the predictive likelihood can be estimated for any subset of the observable variables in linear Gaussian state-space models...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010412361
We suggest a new approach for analyzing the role of financial variables and shocks in computing the output gap. We estimate a two-region DSGE model for the euro area, with financial frictions at the household level, between 2000-2013. After joining the monetary union, a decline in some...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013016603