We present an algorithm, based on a differential evolution MCMC method, for Bayesian inference in AR-GARCH models subject to an unknown number of structural breaks at unknown dates. Break dates are directly treated as parameters and the number of breaks is determined by the marginal likelihood...

We develop a theory of marriage and fertility, distinguishing the choice to have children from the choice of the number of children. The deep parameters of the model are identified from the 1990 US Census. We measure voluntary and involuntary childlessness, and explain why (1) single women are...

Dynamic volatility and correlation models with fixed parameters are restrictive for time series subject to breaks. GARCH and DCC models with changing parameters are specified using the sticky infinite hidden Markov-chain framework. Estimation by Bayesian inference determines the adequate number...

We provide an explanation for why estate taxation is surprisingly little used over the world, given the skewness of the estate distribution. Taxing estates implies meddling with intra-family decisions, which may be frown upon by many. At the same time, the concentration of estates means that a...

That climate policies are costly is evident and therefore often creates major fears. But the alernative (no action) also has a cost. Mitigation costs and damages incurred depend on what the climate policies are, and in addition, they are substitutes. This brings climate policies naturally in the...

Using Belgian microdata, we assess the impact, on a hedonic regression, of the distortions arising from the choice of either a specific zoning system or the delineation of the study area. We also evaluate the biases that arise when spatial effects are not accounted for. Given that the dependent...

Consider an economy populated by males and females, both rich and poor. The society has to choose one of the following marriage institutions: polygyny, strict monogamy, and serial monogamy (divorce and remarriage). After having identified the conditions under which each of these equilibria...